Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Horse Racing Partnerships - Getting To Know Them

Horse Racing Partnerships

In this article, I want to provide you with some insights into how to evaluate a horse racing partnership. If you have not read my previous article. Let me be clear that I am talking about Horse Racing that most people are familiar with. Maybe some day I will take a close look at Rodeo, Polo, and Barrel Racing but not today. The first order of business is to become familiar with the language of Horse Racing. Without this knowledge, it will be difficult to determine if this is worth the time, regardless of its potential.
Types Of Race Horses

Let us consider three classes of horses; Thoroughbreds, Standard-breds and Quarters. Each type of horse, races in very different ways. Quarter Horse races are straight sprints, usually less than 600 yards. They come flying out of the gate and bolt to the finish line. Very little strategy here, just a flat out sprint. If the horse can clear the gate clean and straight tends to do well. These races can be free-for-alls because as they break from the gate, speed is everything, so do not be shocked with the occasional bumber car action.
Thoroughbred Horses also race flat out, the gate opens and the horse runs around the track for a specific distance; ranging from the 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 3/4 miles (and sometimes longer in European, Australian and Japanese races). There is some strategy here because some horses prefer to be in front, while others prefer coming from the back of the pack, running down the leaders.
Standard-bred Horses race in two specific ways; Trotting and Pacing. They are different ways the standard-bred horse gallops. The racing distances are least 1 mile. A gated truck drives in front of the horses as they slowly start either at a trot or at a pace. The gated truck has a gate on each side of the vehicle extending perpendicular that acts like a moving gate. The horses accelerate toward the gate until the gate swing away from the horses. The truck accelerates out of the horses path and the race is on.
Unlike Quarters and Thoroughbreds who are ridden by jockeys sitting in light saddles on the back of the horse, Standard-breds are driven using a cart called a silkie. Standard-bred Racing is often called Harness Racing.
A furlong is 1/8th of a mile. Races below 1 mile are considered sprints. Thoroughbred races are run on Turf, Dirt or Synthetic surfaces. Standard-bred and Quarter Horse races are run on dirt. Each time a horse is entered in a race, the results are reported to organizations like Equibase and stored. Each successive race the horse is entered in, will offer the horse's past performances as part of the program.
Types of Races

It is important to understand that each race has qualifying characteristics. Each horse needs to meet the requirements established for the race. All races are organized into two broad categories: Graded Stakes Races and Non-Graded Stakes Races. Keeping things simple, there is a Graded Stakes Committee that defines the Graded Stakes Races for the entire year. Non-Graded Stakes Races are defined weekly and/or monthly, on a track by track basis. The prize (which is referred to as the purse) for Graded Stakes Races are considerably higher than for Non-Graded Stake Races.
Probably the most well known horse race is the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown. Names like Secretariat, Affirmed and , immediately come to mind. It has been over 25 years since Thoroughbred Horse Racing has celebrated a Triple Crown winner. The Kentucky Derby goes a distance of 1 1/8th miles. Thoroughbred Horses looking to enter this race must be 3 years old and are one of the top 20 earnings horses. The number is 20 because Churchill Downs (the track the Derby is run at) attempts to field 20 horses each year. The Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 (G1) Stakes Race.
Standard-bred Horses are divided into two groups: Trotters and Pacers. So, a basic requirement is that the standard-bred horse runs the race using the appropriate method or gate (at a Pace or a Trot). For a Trot, the horse runs such that the diagonal legs hit the ground at the same time (right front leg, back left leg). For a Pace, the horse runs such that each side (right legs, then left legs) hit the ground at the same time. If the standard-bred horse 'breaks' the running gate while running the race, the horse must go to the back of the pack and re-establish the gate; this is referred to a 'break'. Races like the Hamiltonian are well-known races for Standard-breds.
Allowance Races, Optional Claiming Races, Maiden Claiming Races are all types of races your horse may qualify to race in (Harness races may be named Opens or Qualifiers). For instance, every horse will run its first race against other horses that have never won a race before. This type of race is known as a 'Maiden Special Weight' (this type of race is further restricted by the age of the horse). This means qualifying horses have never won a race (and must be of a certain age). So when a horse finally reaches a level where the trainer and the owners believe (s)he is ready to race; they enter the horse into this type of race.
Partnerships

All Horse Racing Partnerships operate basically the same way. They manage a race horse the same way a sports management team manages any athlete. There are managers, trainers,administrators, medical personnel and training support people (e.g. grooms, hot-walkers). The easiest way to understand this is to realize that each horse is a business and the success of the business will be based on the strength of the people operating the partnership along with the potential of the horse. So when you plan on joining a partnership, look carefully at the people operating it and their partnership track record. Talk to them, visit their stables, look at all the horses they are managing and the horse's racing performances.
It is not practical to think that every race horse will be successful, so manage your expectations. Look carefully at the management team's track record with the horses they claim or purchase because it is a strong indication of future performances. Remember, they select the horse that is purchased or claimed and it is their expertise and business savvy that will ultimately determine the outcome of the partnership. The amount of money you are investing is not relevant here. Regardless of the amount, you want to make sure the partnership is looking to acquire a horse that has a good chance of succeeding. So understanding their method for selecting a claiming horse is important.
No athlete dreams of playing on a last place team, no horse wants to run a race to come in second. That being said, it is not wise to invest your money in an organization that is not looking to acquire a horse that will win. Just remember, Sham was a great horse, unfortunately, he ran against Secretariat. Suffice to say, Sham made a significant amount of money for his owners. Managing expectations is critical and that is what the Partnership Management must be very good at.
Types Of Partnerships

Basically there are two ways to acquire a race horse; claim the horse at a claiming race (privately purchasing the horse from the owners is essentially the same thing) or purchase a race horse that was bred by a breeding organization. It is important to understand the difference because the costs are very different. When you purchase a race horse by claiming the horse at a claiming race, the horse is already in the business, so to speak. The risks are well defined because the horse has already made it to the track and has past performances.
The other way to acquire a race horse is to purchase it through an auction. Auctions occur several times throughout the year and the purchase price is typically higher than a claiming horse (but not always, it depends on the horse). The greatest risk is with Auction acquisitions. The horse is completely untested and there are no guarantees here. In other words, once you purchased the yearling you will wait at least 1 year before the horse will race, so be prepared to pay for the horse at least 1 year before (s)he will be potentially earning purses.
How A Claiming Partnership Works

Claiming partnerships are the most common partnerships available and the easiest to participate in. A horse can be claimed at any one of the many claiming races that are run daily at all racetracks. So let me be very specific. The partnership you join is organized based on the expectation that it will claim a race horse. The partnership earns money based on where the horse finished in a race, (s)he is entered in. The purse money the horse earns goes to covering the costs of the partnership. The partnership will enter the horse in future races (and these races could include other claiming races) with the expectation that the horse may be claimed by another partnership (if the race is a claiming race). Remember, the horse is not really a pet and if you plan on getting emotionally attached to the horse, then this might not be the best place to invest your money.
The partnership will claim a horse, turn it over to the trainer(s), schedule future races for the horse and expect the horse to win, place or show (the other finishing positions get paid but at substantially lower amounts). Remember the horse needs to be fed, stabled, trained, groomed, exercised and medically checked regularly, and the partnership will pay for these monthly costs. So, make certain you understand all these costs because once you are in the partnership, it is difficult to leave it and you are financially on the hook for the horse.
So your partnership determines that there is a horse they are interested in claiming and the horse is running in a claiming race for a claim price of $20,000. The partnership needs to have the capital to acquire the horse. So the total amount of seed capital includes the cost of the claim (e.g. $20,000), plus the State Sales Taxes (depending on the State), plus any track related fees (depends on the State and Track), plus at least 4 months of maintenance for the horse (this may vary to as high as 7 months), plus a monthly administration fee (this varies, sometimes management takes a percentage of the horse as partial or complete payment; you need to check this before you join the partnership). The cost to maintain a race horse varies but $5000 per month in New York is not uncommon and this will vary depending on the trainer and the State the partnership operates in. So, the partnership will need at least $70,000 to claim a $20,000 Race Horse (and this is a very rough estimate).
So the partnership has entered a claim for a horse. The claim must be entered prior to the race, so it is important that the partnership has carefully evaluated the horse, its past performances, its current medical condition, and have a racing plan for the horse, to name a few areas of concern. The most important aspect to remember about claiming partnerships, is that you want to see the horse entered into races that it can win because the more often the horse finishes in the first three positions, the more likely the horse will be covering his own expenses.
Be practical, you want a partnership that does not have a history of doing frequent cash calls (when the partnership costs exceed the earnings of the horse). It will happen, so just remember, you are responsible for covering the expenses based on the percentage you own of the horse. If you bought a 5% stake in the horse and monthly expenses are $5000 per month you are expected to come up with $250 per month to cover the expenses. Make sure you speak with the managing partners about this because you do not want to be hit with any big surprises. Like any athlete, the horse can get injured, so factor in the potential of an unexpected medical cost. Again, the partnership should factor this into the monthly costs.
I cannot emphasize more loudly, speak with the managing partnership and look carefully at the horse's past performances, especially long lay-offs because it may be an indication of the horse's racing health. Finely tuned athletes perform regularly and with consistent results. Of course, there is no reliable way to predict the future but you can avoid obviously questionable claims.



Philip D. Liquori has been interested in non-standard business opportunities for over 30 years. He manages and maintains several high volume media content websites He has developed several business applications in the financial services, legal and medical software industry.
PhatzRadio



Horse Racing Structure Quick Guide

Horse Racing Structure

Whether you just love watching a good horse race or your looking to stake your claim at the track, knowing the racing structure is a must. Today, I'll present you with the general structure of horse racing.
When you get right down to it, all horse races fall within four main categories: maiden races, claiming races, allowance races, stakes races. Within those categories are various classes, but for this article we'll focus mainly on the main categories.
Maiden Horse Races
Maiden races are my favorite, because as a horse racing bettor, I get the most "rush" be wagering on them. A maiden race features a field of horses that have never won before. And one thing is for sure; one of those horses is about to enjoy its first victory.
When a horse finally gets that elusive first victory, his or her maiden is broken. As a horse racing bettor, you deal a lot with the unknown. How do you gauge a field of horses that were always also-rans? But when you get one right, it feels great.
By the way, horses that haven't won yet aren't limited to maiden races. They can be raced in other types of horse races. If you're looking for the best maiden horses to watch, check out a Maiden Special Weight race. This class is all horses that are expected to be solid.
Claiming Races
You could call these races "shopping time," because in a claiming race, all horses are up for sale. Before the race, anyone with the cash can claim the horse.
It's a simple process to understand. An interested party claims the horse before the race. After the race is run, the old owner gets the claiming price and any purse due him or her and the claiming party gets the horse.
Sometimes horses are run above their value and someone under them. It can be a game. It's most likely that you'll watch and bet on many claiming races, because this is the most active category in horse racing by far.
Allowance Races
The purses (prize money) at this level are higher than the previous two and this is a level just below the big one (stakes races). Generally, these will be horses that meet certain non-winning conditions. For instance, NW3X is for horses that haven't won three races other than maiden, claiming or starter.
There are various classes of allowance races-as there are in all categories.
Stakes Races
This is the big time. Most casual horse racing fans and horse racing bettors view these races. Some popular ones are the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup. All of the best horses (and some filler horses) run in these races. Stakes races have the highest purses-millions of dollars. The "stakes" are high.
When it comes to stakes races, Graded stakes races are the top of the mountain. These races are ranked G1, G2 and G3 with G1 being the king. Graded stakes races often feature horses from all over the country and sometimes from other parts of the world-especially the big ones.
And don't be fooled by the numbering system. There's a big talent drop from G1 to G3.
Now that you know the four major horse racing categories, you're ready to begin breaking down the classes within each category. Horse racing is one of the most exciting sports around. I wish you the best of luck at the track.



Get more horse racing education, winners and news at HorseRacingWinner.com.
Horse racing history, track reviews and horse racing betting help at BettingOnHorse.com.
The author also contributes to the baseball betting blog at: SportsBettingBaseball.com.



Thursday, April 19, 2012

Horse Racing System - This One ALWAYS Works!

Horse Racing System

This horse racing system simply works by placing the same stakes ( i.e. £10 on each selection ) but it also has some rules, which are pretty straight forward to understand.
The amount of selections you bet on this horse racing system is determined by the odds of the favorite, I have placed a table of odds below for you to show how many selections can be bet upon.
All odds below are in decimals and are the odds of the Favourite in any given race.
Odds of Favourite In decimals Bet On First
Between 3.00 & 4.00 2 Horses
Between 4.00 & 5.00 3 Horses
Between 5.00 & 6.00 4 Horses
Between 6.00 & 7.00 5 Horses
Between 7.00 & 8.00 6 Horses
Let's just imagine that the first race you wanted to have a bet in is the 2.10 @ Ascot. Simply navigate to that particular race at your chosen, betting exchange, bookmaker website or go down to your local bookies and take a look at the odds/prices that you are being offered.
Now for this horse racing system to work, let's say for arguments sake that the favourite was being offered @ 5.3. Take a look at the above table and look for 5.3, there you will see that you are allowed to bet on the first 4 horses in the betting market i.e. 1st Favourite, 2nd favourite, 3rd favourite and 4th favourite, making a little more sense now??
The same goes for any price that the favourite has within the odds displayed in the table above.
This horse racing system, called "Level Stake" betting, has been around for "Donkey's" years but not too many people actually do it, simply because the majority of punters are looking for a BIG win with every bet they place and to be honest they lose almost ALL the time.
Selections process for this horse racing system is very easy to do: if in your chosen race the favorite has odds of 3 at Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the favorite and the second favorite in the betting.
If in this horse racing system you placed say £10 on each one, your total outgoings are £20. If the favorite were to win you would receive back £20 in winnings and your £10 stake money as well, so a total of £30.
If the second favorite were to win at odds of 5, then you would receive back £40 plus your £10 stake money back for a total of £50 return.

If you were to select a big race where the favorite was priced up at 7 on Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the first 6 in the betting.
It is a very simple horse racing system, but highly effective and if done properly can make a very nice second income.
I have personally had winning bets of up to 25/1 although these are very few and far between it's very nice when it happens.
Level Stakes betting can be used with nearly all races, with just a few exceptions which are listed below.
1. Do not bet in "Maiden" races. I find these to be very unpredictable and results can vary.
2. NEVER bet in handicap races with over 16 runners, again very unpredictable and there are always much better races to bet in.
3. Never bet in "Apprentice" races, although there are some pretty good apprentice jockeys around you WANT a pro jockey that knows exactly what it takes to win a race.
Another variation of the above horse racing system is to MISS OUT the favourite and use the second favourite as your stating point. This enables you to add more selections and get bigger priced winners.
If you copy how I make my selections below then you will be quids in week after week.
If you decide to place your level stake bets with the favourite included, then this horse racing system is straight forward enough as ANY race that meets the above criteria is fair game but if you wanted to narrow your search down and just find between 2 & 4 races per day to play in, then just copy the following to achieve a VERY high strike rate.
You will need any "run of the mill" newspaper ( I prefer "The Sun" ) that has racing pages in its sporting section.
Plus you will need to register yourself at the http://www.racingpost.co.uk website if you haven't done already then go do it now, it doesn't cost anything.
On racing day, to apply this horse racing system simply log onto the racing post website and go through ALL of that days racing, you must mark off ( in your newspaper ) the selection that the racing post gives as its most likely winner.
When you have done that you then look at what your newspaper's two tipsters go for in that particular race. If ALL 3 ( 2 X newspaper tipsters plus racing post) select the same horse then that COULD be a definite bet. Then simply do this with the newspaper for ALL the races of the day. Don't be put off at all, it takes about 10 minutes to do, not a lot of time for a horse racing system that could change your financial future.
Once you have done that you need to go to Betfair and simply check the odds for the horse that ALL 3 tipsters have given. If the odds are acceptable with the odds in the table then you have a definite bet and you stake on however many horses that the odds in the grid tell you to.
The other variation of this horse racing system is where you miss out the favourite all together and the selection process for this is much simple and quicker.
Simply miss out all the "Danger" races as described on the previous page then try to find races that have between 12 & 16 runners, especially handicap races because in handicap races horses are allotted different weights to carry, which in effect gives ALL horses the same chance of winning.
Then all you need to do for this horse racing system to work is to get the odds for the SECOND favourite and place your stake money down on as many selections as the table allows you to.
Now you know how easy it is to make your selections, you will now need to know how to make best use of your betting bank.
We will take a £1000 betting bank as an example but you can start with however much you can afford, this horse racing system works for everybody!
Simply divide your betting bank by 100, so for a £1000 bank this figure is £10. So £10 is the amount you should place on your first ever race.
Let's now say that in your first race you can bet on the first 4 horses, you divide your first bet of £10 by 4, which equals £2.50, so £2.50 is the stake money that you place on the first 4 selections in your first race.
I can just hear you say "Hey, staking a mere £2.50 on a horse, this horse racing system is not going to make me rich!!"
Well, its not and is not meant to either, yet! You should look at this as a long term venture and protect your betting bank as best you can. Dividing your betting bank by 100 gives you 100 losing bets before you go bust and that just is not going to happen.
In the £2.50 example above if the favourite wins then you will win a level stake profit of £2.50 BUT if the favourite loses and an 8/1 shot wins, you will then pick up a nice £12.50 profit.
Then as the days go by your betting bank increases and then so does your initial stake money and soon instead of placing £2.50 on each horse you will find yourself placing £22.50 on each horse, I can see how you start enjoying this horse racing system now!



John Anthony is a recognized authority in the PRO gambling world. His worldwide famous Horse Racing System, the Sure2Profit Calculator PRO 1.8, has helped over 1,288 people making up to £80,000 per year on Tax FREE profits.
Find out how to become one of them here: http://www.sure2profit.com/software.htm



Horse Racing Terminology

Horse Racing Terminology

If you are interested in horse racing, you will want to learn the terminology.

We will have a vocabulary list of terminology as it is related to the different aspects of horse racing.
Terminology related to the horse:
Colt: A male horse under 5 years of age.
Dam: The mother of the horse.
Filly: A female horse up to and including the age of 4.
Foal: Newly born thoroughbred, or until weaned. Can be a male horse or a female horse.
Gelding: Castrated male horse.
Maiden: A horse who has not won a race. Also used to describe a non-winning rider.
Sire: The father of the horse.
Stallion: An entire male horse.
Stud: Male horse used in breeding. Also is a breeding farm.
Yearling: Thoroughbred between the first New Year's Day after being foaled and the following January 1.
Terminology related to the track:
Paddock: A structure or area where the horses are saddled and viewed before post time.
Post: The starting point of the race or a position in the starting gate.
Post Parade: Horses going from the paddock to the starting gate passing the stands.
Post Position: The location of the stall in the starting gate from which a horse will start the race.
Totalisator: Machine used to sell and record betting tickets and shows odds.
Also figures and displays payoff figures on a totalisator board.
Track Record: The fastest time at various distances recorded at a particular track.
Terminology related to the jockey:
Jockey: The rider on the horse.
Silks: Jacket and cap worn by the jockey which designates the owner of the horse.
Set Down: To describe when a jockey has been suspended.
Post: The starting point of the race or a position in the starting gate.
Stick: A jockey's whip.
Terminology related to the race:
Also Ran: A horse that finishes out of the money.
Dead Heat: Two or more horses finishing in an exact tie at the wire.
Entry: Two or more horses owned by the same stable or in some cases trained by the same trainer and thus running as a single betting unit. A bet on one is a bet for both.
Field: The horses in a race.
Flat Race: Race on level ground as opposed to a hurdles race or steeplechase racing.
Furlong: One eighth of a mile; 220 Yards; 660 feet.
Terminology related to betting/wagering:
Daily Double: Type of wagering calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races, usually the first and second races.
Trifecta: A wager picking the first three finishers in exact order.
Claiming Race: The horses may be purchased by a qualified, licensed person for the claiming price listed in that race.
Stakes Race: A race usually a feature race, for which an owner must pay a fee to run a horse.
Terminology related to horse racing occupations.
Ferrier: Blacksmith.
Valet: Person who attends riders and keeps their wardrobe and equipment in order.
Terminology related to horse diseases.
Blood Worms: Parasites that get into the blood stream.
Laminitis: Inflammation under horny wall of foot.
Horse racing terminology uses vocabulary not generally used in everyday conversations. If you are interested in horse racing, then you will need to study horse racing terminology. The above is just a small sampling of horse racing terminology. If you are interested in a more extensive list of horse racing terminology, I would refer you to "The American Racing Manual". This book is considered by many as the official encyclopedia of thoroughbred racing and is by DRF Press.



[http://www.horsesvillage.com]



Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Horse Racing Tips - Make Money By Betting On The Losing Horse

Horse Racing Tips

ou might not know it, but you can increase your profits if you put your money on the horse that has the greatest odds of losing a race. Professional punters dub this as "lay betting". Read more to learn more about this completely reverse form of horse handicapping.
Think In Reverse
When your horse racing tips say that you will not profit on the odds-on favorite, you may want to bet on the horse that is likely to lose the race. This is a complete turn-around because now, you will be handicapping for the worst horses! Your predictions will now be based on a horse's worst performance, figures, and stats. Also, you will be looking for that particular horse which tends to run poorly on certain weather conditions and on particular race tracks. Instead of putting your money on the youngest, healthiest, and fastest horse, you will be betting on the oldest and slowest horse among the herd.
Evaluate Race Results
Whether you are handicapping for the likely winner or loser in a horse race, you have to study horse racing forms. You can find these horse racing forms in the race tracks, in newsstands, or on the Internet. On these racing forms are past figures and stats which aids your handicaps. Remember, because you're lay betting, you will be looking for the slowest among all the horses.
Tell-tale Odds
If you are getting your horse racing tips online, you must be using a system where you can find odds which represent how the horses will likely fare in a particular race. Odds are calculated numbers which yield the probability of a horse's victory or loss in a particular race. And because you are lay betting, you should look for the horse with the highest odds of losing. Bet on the horse with the million-to-one shot to raise your profits!
Do Not Wish For A Miracle
With your horse racing tips, you already have your money on the horse with the greatest odds of losing. Then a strange thing happened. Instead of losing, your horse won! As a result, you lost more cash than you should have. Other times, the odds-on favorite to finish first loses the race. These strange things happen all the time. That is why you can never really discount the capability of these horses, nor can you never really put too much faith on the horse racing tips that you get. But most of the time, these horse racing tips are fairly accurate. And you can be sure that the odds - be it for winning or losing - tend to reflect the possible outcomes of a horse race.
Making money in horse races does not always have to mean betting on the winning horse. But looking to win on a horse that is predicted to lose is always a calculated risk. You may not be easily swayed by this betting strategy, but it is a good alternative to put more cash into your betting bank.



Want more articles on horse racing tips, horse racing results [http://horse-racing-software.org/Performance.shtml], and horse racing systems [http://horse-racing-software.org/System.html]? Visit Horse-Racing-Software.org now!



Horse Racing Tips - How To Lay Favourites And Make A Profit Every Single Day


==Introduction==

For all of you that are reading this that do not know what "Laying" is, it is simply YOU predicting 1 horse in any race that will NOT win that race. In effect YOU become a bookmaker and take bets from people who think that the horse WILL win.

I do not know if you have your own system or you use horse racing tips from a tipster, but this a very simple horse racing system anybody can use.

It is not complicated at all and it is simply pressing 1 button on Betfair exactly the same as you would if placing a win single bet {Pink lay button instead of the blue win button}

Some people will tell you that laying horses is a sure fire way to end up in the "poor house" and they would be dead right if you don't do it properly and this goes for ANY bet you have, not just laying.

Say for example we have a 12 runner horse race and you wanted to bet 1 of these to win that race, you will then have ALL the other 11 horses running AGAINST you and are trying to stop your 1 selection from winning.

Now on the other hand we have a 12 runner horse race and we pick 1 horse to LOSE {lay} we now have ALL the other 11 horses running FOR US and if any of those 11 horses win that race WE WIN!!

Some tipster give these kind of horse racing tips and I can assure that if done properly it can make you quite a lot of money!

So the odds are WITH you and not AGAINST you when laying.

The only problem with laying horses to lose is with YOU and the way you select them. You would imagine that "Laying" the outsider in all races would certainly stand you in good stead as the majority of them lose and you would win the majority of the time BUT unfortunately if you take that course you WILL come unstuck at some point and you WOULD wipe out any previous profits plus more from your original betting banks, as they do win now and again.

Lets just imagine that the outsider in every race was 33/1 and you wanted just £10 profit per race, to win that £10 you would have a liability of £330, meaning that if that horse were to win YOU would LOSE £330, just not worth the risk!! You would only need 1 per week to wipe you out.

So if laying the "Worst" horse in any given race is no good, then which horse SHOULD you lay?

Good question, which most of the people out there don't know the answer for but today YOU are going to find out the EXACT method that generates me and the subscribers of my well known "Sure2Profit Membership" ( http://www.Sure2Profit.com/membership.html ) over £80,000 of tax free profits per year!

==The "Favourite"==

Some of you probably think that I am a bit mad at this point, why would I lay the best horse in every race... what kind of horse racing tips is this??

Well, simply put the BEST horse in any race may NOT really be the best horse! The favourite in ANY race is only the favourite because WE make it the favourite by placing lots of money on it, it's as simple as that.

So if 1,000 people who DON'T know what they are doing place £1000 each on the same horse then it could become the favourite even though its last run was down on Blackpool pleasure beach!

What we are going to do is to find "false" favourites, favourites that because of one reason or another shouldn't really be favourite.

Statistics show that favourite win their races just 30% of the time, some races are GOOD for favourite and some races are BAD for favourites.

Would you bet a 6/4 favourite in an 18 runner handicap race? I certainly would not BUT I would lay it, with the other 17 runners ALL running for me.... these is common sense horse racing tips!

Your liabilities are also good with you only risking £15 if the odds were 6/4 {2.5 on Betfair} to win £10, I'm sure you would agree that this is a lot better than the example above where you risk a LOT more for the same reward.

You may now see why "Laying" can be quite safe and very profitable.

==The Selections==

This part really is very simple and it will not take you long to find quite a few "False Favourites" Just follow the rules over the page.

1: Armed with either your daily newspaper or at the racing post website {Or Both} simply select the races with the most number of runners in them.

2: Ideally, you should look for handicap races which have 16 runners or more.

3: If you can find any, Apprentice races and women jockey races are very good for laying the favourite.

4: Once you have these marked off , simply go through them and pick all the "Handicap" races. These are the races that are best to concentrate on.

5: Pick out any handicap races that have odds for the favourite quoted as no more than 7/4.

6: The above horses would be DEFINATE bets, don't worry if there aren't any on certain days, simply go to any race that has 16 runners or more.

7: Some days you may find that there are no 16 runner or above races, if this happens simply look for 14 runners etc.

8: When you have all the corresponding races, just go to http://www.betfair.com and check out the odds there for your selections.

9: If the odds are 2.8 and lower, then these are DEFINATE bets.

10: Do NOT lay selections that are below 1.9 on betfair, although a fair few of these lose, a fair few of them win as well and that we DON'T want.

When sticking to the above you will have great success when laying horses, when also using a sensible staking plan BUT if you add the following few rules to the above then you will achieve even more success.

So here is my personal horse racing tips:

1: After making your selections, either at the racing post website or any daily newspaper, just check to see if your horse is a "Course & Distance" winner {Shown as CD NEXT TO THE HORSE}. If it is then DON'T lay it.

2: Is your selection carrying any more or less weight than it did in its last race? If it is carrying more weight then LAY it, if it is carrying less weight then do NOT lay it.

4: Is your selection stepping up or stepping down in trip? if so then you SHOULD consider laying it.

5: Has your selection either a lady or apprentice jockey riding it? If so then LAY it because they DO make errors of judgement.

Apart from the above to make this work you will also need a sensible staking plan, one that will keep your money relatively safe and make your whole betting experience an enjoyable one.

I use something quite simple and recommend you do it this way as well but you are obviously at liberty to do whatever you like.

I will take a £1,000 betting bank as an example:

Divide your betting bank by 200, so in this example it is £5. So a profit target on day 1 of £5 per race. I know exactly what you are thinking at this point..."Not quite as much as I was hoping for!!!"

Well, admittedly its not a lot but if you are aiming for say 8 such races per day, then £40 is not to be sniffed at, and remember this is only day 1, from day 2 your profit target may well be £6 per race. Trust me on this one, it doesn't take too long to get your betting banks built up enough so that you are aiming for £25, £50 or even £100 per race.

To put it all into perspective let us say that you achieve an easy 5 winning bets per day, that's an overall percentage profit of 2.5% DAILY or nearly 18% total weekly profit added to your betting banks or to give it a monetary value NEARLY £1000 profit in the first 4 weeks.

Take it to week 8 and your betting bank has now grown to £3800 and from there on in you will be aiming for a race profit of £20, or £100 per day @ 5 winning races per day.

As long as you look at any of your gambling activities as a long term BUSINESS venture, then you will achieve much more than if you look at it as a quick source of income to help out with any financial difficulties that you may have.

==Golden Rules ( The Real Horse Racing Tips! )==

1: After making your selections, either at the racing post website or any daily newspaper, just check to see if your horse is a "Course & Distance" winner {Shown as CD NEXT TO THE HORSE}. If it is then DON'T lay it.

2: Is your selection carrying any more or less weight than it did in its last race? If it is carrying more weight then LAY it, if it is carrying less weight then do NOT lay it.

4: Is your selection stepping up or stepping down in trip? if so then you SHOULD consider laying it.

5: Has your selection either a lady or apprentice jockey riding it? If so then LAY it because they DO make errors of judgement.

Apart from the above to make this work you will also need a sensible staking plan, one that will keep your money relatively safe and make your whole betting experience an enjoyable one.

I use something quite simple and recommend you do it this way as well but you are obviously at liberty to do whatever you like.

==The Staking Plan==

This, or any other horse racing tips for that matter, would be not making you money unless you use the right staking plan...

I will take a £1,000 betting bank as an example:

This is what I advice to the members of the Sure2Profit Membership ( http://www.Sure2Profit.com/membership.html )

Divide your betting bank by 200, so in this example it is £5. So a profit target on day 1 of £5 per race. I know exactly what you are thinking at this point..."Not quite as much as I was hoping for!!!"

Well, admittedly its not a lot but if you are aiming for say 8 such races per day, then £40 is not to be sniffed at, and remember this is only day 1, from day 2 your profit target may well be £6 per race. Trust me on this one, it doesn't take too long to get your betting banks built up enough so that you are aiming for £25, £50 or even £100 per race!!!

To put it all into perspective let us say that you achieve an easy 5 winning bets per day, that's an overall percentage profit of 2.5% DAILY or nearly 18% total weekly profit added to your betting banks or to give it a monetary value NEARLY £1000 profit in the first 4 weeks.

Take it to week 8 and your betting bank has now grown to £3800 and from there on in you will be aiming for a race profit of £20, or £100 per day @ 5 winning races per day.

As long as you look at any of your gambling activities as a long term BUSINESS venture, then you will achieve much more than if you look at it as a quick source of income to help out with any financial difficulties that you may have.




John Anthony is a recognized authority in the PRO gambling world. His Horse Racing Tips service, the Sure2Profit Membership ( http://www.Sure2Profit.com/membership.html ) have helped over 1,288 people making over £50,000 per year on Tax FREE profits ." Due to liquidity availability on betting exchanges, subscription to John's private tipster service is limited to a "one in one out" basis. To check for spaces available and signup for a completely FREE trial please go now to: http://www.Sure2Profit.com/membership.html




Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Professional Poker Player Transition to Sports Betting - Where's the +EV in Horse Racing Systems?


EV or Expected Value is a widely used term in poker terminology to determine if the outcome of a play is +, 0 or - in terms of profitability. This article is aimed for Poker Players who also like to punt on UK and Irish horse racing. It never ceases to amaze me how many good poker players are terrible at betting on horse racing. If they can spend so much time on their poker game then why not also put in the effort when placing a bet to ensure that you have the most +EV decision that you can possibly make with all the information at hand. The title of the post is actually a small bit misleading as I personally believe that all horse racing systems are doomed and the way to consistently profit at betting on horse racing is to have a horse racing method not a system.
The following article will lay the ground work for anyone who wants to start taking their punting to the next level. There is no better satisfaction then spending an hour or two analysing a race and 1 horse just stands head and shoulders above the rest when you compare all the different factors that I will explain below. Of course the toughest part is having the discipline to only wait for when these such occasions occur when placing a bet, and some times, this may mean you do not bet for up to a month. (This may help explain why I moved into playing poker from sports betting as the results of your actions are known instantaneously, and you can play a game anytime of any day). I also think you can compare a MTT player to a professional sports bettor - you can go long periods without a win and then score a few big results and then rinse and repeat and hopefully over the course of the year you will have been profitable.
1. You must specialise. All the most profitable professional sports bettors pick not only 1 sport but only a small niche in that sport. Patrick Veitch, who has won over 10 million punting on horse racing in the UK only bets on UK flat racing. He even has a massive team of researchers who do a lot of the work for him, but he as he also works 18 hours days during the flat season he is naturally burnt out by the end of the season.
For the beginner though, what I mean by specialise is concentrate on an area of horse racing where you can get the most information. Information is power so unless you own a shed load of 2 year old horses or are the nephew of Aidan O Brein, there is no point in specialising in 2 year old horse races as you just wont have enough information to go on. Therefore it makes more sense to specialise on handicap races, where each horse in the race must of least have run 3 times to qualify but mainly are run by the same horses year in, year out until they are retired.
The best races then to specialise in are 4 year old plus handicaps in flat and national hunt racing as you have the most information available and you can start to see patterns in horses and therefore pick out some very +EV selections when you have spotted this pattern and the majority of the racing public haven't. This is the bread and butter of successful punting, going against the crowd.
Personally I used to specialise in 4 year old plus UK flat handicaps in the summer, and UK and Irish National Hunt handicap chases and hurdles in the Winter.
2. In your specialised area, when you select a race to analyse, you must go through every horse in the race to develop a shortlist. Below are my 5 essential criteria that every horse must have when you are placing a bet.
a) Going - The horse must be proven on going conditions.
b) Distance - The horse must be proven on the trip
c) Course Type - The horse must be proven on similar type of course
d) Fitness - The horse must have shown that it can operate at optimal levels since its last number of days off the track.
e) Class - The horse must have either won at the class he is currently competing in before or else gave a very good showing in a previous race at the similar or higher class level.
Going and Distance
With regard to going and distance and to a lesser extent course type, I will not fully discount a horse who has never raced on the going if he has extremely good sire stats (15% + strike rate) however I would always give precedence to another horse in a race who has won on for example soft going compared to a horse who has never raced on soft but has sire stats of 18% strike rate for soft going conditions.
With distance, I would also use sire stats if a horse is moving up or down in trip by 1 furlong on the flat, and 2 furlongs in national hunt. With experience, you can tell by looking at a race if a horses needs the extra trip or not and the sire stats can be a great way to back up that visual piece of information.
Course Type
This often overlooked by the general racing public. The best thing about UK and Irish racing is the different types of race courses you will encounter. Cheltenham (left-handed, galloping, undulating and testing track with stiff fences) is totally different to Stratford (left Handed, flat & Sharp) as it is to Sandown (right-handed, galloping, testing track)
A horse who has won twice in Cheltenham will probably never win a race at Stratford and vice versa. Bigger sized horses are more suited to galloping tracks as they can take the turns easier and can maintain a strong galloping pace for longer whereas a smaller sized horse is better suited to sharp tracks (i.e less than 10 furlongs) as most of the running will be going around bends and therefore the bigger horses will not be able to maintain their top galloping speed for long on the stretches.
Also some horses can only run to their best at left handed courses and vice versa. You would actually wonder why trainers persist to run horses which clearly will not win on a certain turning race track, but then you realise by doing this, they will get their Official rating down as horse will appear to be trying but will be hanging left or right the whole way through. You have to be aware that trainers will be trying to manipulate the handicapper a lot of the times in the lower grade races by running horses on unsuitable ground, at the wrong distance, on the wrong course type, or running the horse with a different style during the race all to try and reduce their rating so that they can set up a better chance for themselves to win in the future at a decent price.
I love Cheltenham race meet in March for the simple fact, the course is a stiff testing course which straight away rules out a lot of other horses in the race as they just cant handle it, the grade of racing and pirze money on offer means that everyone is trying to win, and you can nearly always guarantee what the going will be. Therefore if you just use the criteria above and select horses who are proven on the 5 factors (and this applies to the non handicap graded races too, you will see huge profits)
Fitness
To determine a horses fitness, you must look at its previous patterns of how it performed when it returns after a certain number of days off the track. The beauty of handicap races is you have loads of past information to go on and you can see if a horse is 0-5 when returning after an 80 day lay off, whereas he is 3-2-5 when he returns between 15 and 30 days.
Class
A horses class is often overlooked by the racing public. Statistically horses who are moving up in grade/class do not have a good strike rate, however the public will back it blindly if it sees it has won by 5 lengths in its previous race in a lower grade. Analyse past races to see if a horse has won or come close in the grade of race it is racing in today. You can discount a horse if it has failed 2 times at the grade when having all other conditions to suit except for when it is running for a new stable which has a good record at rejuvenating horses.
Also keep in mind that a horse who has placed in a black type race (i.e grade, 1,2,3) will have a more class than a horse who has a good winning record in Class 2 (B) handicaps, so if it is racing in a Class 2 handicap for the first time, do not discount just because it has never won a race.
3. Once you have created your shortlist based on the above criteria, you can now get down to the real dirty work of finding the eventual winner. Sometimes you might only be left with 1 horse, sometimes with 8, you must then start applying other filters to see if you can narrow down the list more. Sometimes the odds will allow to dutch 3 horses left if you can not narrow it down anymore. Then go for it as it is a plus EV move.
However be aware that every time you discount you must have a very valid reason backed up by a decent sample size. Here's a list of filters to reduce the shortlist.
Weight
Some horses as stated earlier have a bigger frame then others, therefore having top weight doesn't make much difference to them, whereas the smaller horse will struggle. Again by studying previous races you will spot a pattern
OR
This is the official rating that the horse racing board's in house handicapper assigns to a horse to determine what weight it should carry in its next horse race. The OR is updated weekly, therefore you sometimes see trainers turn out a horse 3 times in a week to try and take advantage of this before the handicapper reassigns it a higher rating. For an excellent explanation of official hores racing handicapping see this article written by good friend Malcom Smith over at www.UKhorseracing.co.uk.
After a while, horses will reach their peak and start to hover around a certain OR mark. Therefore it will be unlikely that it will win if its OR mark is higher than its highest winning mark unless the horse is an improving progressive sort. But for older horses, this OR mark becomes more important and can be more relied upon.
Field Size
Some horses will not race unless they are covered in the pack, other horses need room otherwise they get into trouble during the race. The trick is to identify these type of horses. You will start to spot where some horses only win in races with less than 8 runners, but never figure in races with more than 12. You can safely assume that he needs the perfect ride in a big runner race but more than likely will not get that (This is when you can factor in the Jockeys ability to see if its ok to rule out this horse or not) The field size matters more in National Hunt, as some horses prefer seeing the jumps early/later and as they are pack animals prefer chasing a leader than actually leading
Seasonal
Alot of horses prefer to run in certain times of the year. This could be down to how a trainer prepares the horse over the course of the season and aims it to be at full fitness come March time for example, but other times horses just perform better in certain months. Again by looking at past patterns you will begin to spot these trends.
Trainer Statistics
8 years ago it was a very profitable trend to follow certain trainers at certain race tracks for certain race types. This edge has slowly eroded since the markets have caught on, however it still needs to be factored in when trying to finalise your short list.
Trainer - Jockey combinations
If you try and follow this blindly by backing winning Trainer-Jockey Combos, you will most likely end up with a loss. However it is a good tool to have when you are trying to reduce the shortlist as some stats are just too good to ignore.
Jockey Booking
This is actually a powerful indicator. However this again doesn't mean much if the horse doesn't first qualify for the 5 essential criteria above. Also if you only ever back horses with the top jockeys on board you are forgoing on EV as, the odds will drop on a horse with the likes of Ruby Walsh or Tony McCoy on board, but odds will still remain good on a horse if for example the jockey booking was Graham Lee, who is a very underrated performer. Look back over past races and see how the horse has performed under their guidance before. You will start to see profitable trends and indicators.
Gambling Stables
There are a few ways to do this. One is manually record stables where horses have been heavily backed and won. Another way is to look at a horses previous wins and see what the average odds were. The lower the winning odds, the bigger chance that the stable money only goes down when the horse has a good chance of winning (Kevin Ryan is an example of a gambling stable). The higher the odds, means the horse has won races that they weren't fully expecting to win and therefore less likely a gambling stable (Veneita Williams comes to mind here for being an honest stable).
Post Race Comments
This is often overlooked. If you see what trainers, jockeys and owners have said to the press after a horse has won (See the racing post website for all the comments), you can pick up some useful information which can help you lean one way or the other on a selection.
Pace of the race.
To understand the pace of the race you first need to figure out what is each horse's preferred running style. They can be broken down into front runners, prominent runners, Hold up horses. Here's is a fantastic article which details the breakdown of winning % of different horses running styles compared to the actual number of race entries of horses with different running styles.
It shows that you should really be concentrating on front running and prominent horses as it accounts for 65% of winners compared to being only 50% of entries in races. Front runners in particular account for 20% of winners even though they only supply 11% of runners in a race.
You can use this to your advantage once you get to know all of the different course types. By backing a front running horse that satisfies the 5 essential criteria on a race course which has a sharp track with a short run in, you have added a few % EV points to your selection.
Another factor here is analysing the previous 3 races the horse has ran in and check out the in running comments. Especially look at the horses who came placed or came outside the top 4 but were close near the end. Keep and eye out for comments like "finished strongly", "kept on well", "stayed on well", "kept on final furlong"and for other tidbits like "hampered" but then "finished strongly". These can point towards a horse who is on the upward curve and given the perfect conditions in the next race will have a very good chance of winning.
Another thing to factor in is if a race does not have any natural front runners, then the race will not be run at a true pace, therefore could throw up some very unusual results. It may mean that the horse who has the best speed on a flat track will win when it drives all out in the last furlong.
When the pace of the race is guaranteed, the classier horse which satisfies the essential criteria will more often than not win the race.
4. Resources
For 6 years, before getting lured into the world of Online Poker, I punted successfully on horse racing and I used the following resources
Ratings from ukhorseracing.co.uk.
The ratings are based upon advanced pure mathematics but are presented in a an easy to read pdf. The main feature in my view that sets this service apart from alot of pretenders is the 'Class' filter they derive using their mathematical approach. Fantastically accurate for Non Handicap graded races in both National Hunt and Flat racing in the both UK and Irish racing. They also have a great forum where you can exchange ideas with the other members and have recently introduced a Racing Bot where you plug in all your profitable racing systems and sit back and watch.
Stats and ratings from ukracestats.com
I only found this website 4 years into my sports betting career, and it was free for nearly 2 years after that. It is without doubt the biggest time saving tool when it comes to analysing a race using all the criteria and filters I have mentioned above in the article. The only negative is that they only cover UK horse racing.
Racing Post Website- Last year they introduced a subscription service and I suppose it was about time considering all the information that it provides. It is essential for anyone serious about racing. I used it to confirm my findings from the ratings and stats mentioned above.
At The Races Website - Good for watching previous races and offers different race analysis from the Racing Post. As far as I know this is still free.
I hope that after reading the above that you will now not just throw money blindly at the favourite when you have a punt on the horses. Put a bit of time and effort into the selection process and give yourself a +EV chance of winning.



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