Professional Poker Player Transition to Sports Betting - Where's the +EV in Horse Racing Systems?

EV or Expected Value is a widely used term in poker terminology to determine if the outcome of a play is +, 0 or - in terms of profitability. This article is aimed for Poker Players who also like to punt on UK and Irish horse racing. It never ceases to amaze me how many good poker players are terrible at betting on horse racing. If they can spend so much time on their poker game then why not also put in the effort when placing a bet to ensure that you have the most +EV decision that you can possibly make with all the information at hand. The title of the post is actually a small bit misleading as I personally believe that all horse racing systems are doomed and the way to consistently profit at betting on horse racing is to have a horse racing method not a system.
The following article will lay the ground work for anyone who wants to start taking their punting to the next level. There is no better satisfaction then spending an hour or two analysing a race and 1 horse just stands head and shoulders above the rest when you compare all the different factors that I will explain below. Of course the toughest part is having the discipline to only wait for when these such occasions occur when placing a bet, and some times, this may mean you do not bet for up to a month. (This may help explain why I moved into playing poker from sports betting as the results of your actions are known instantaneously, and you can play a game anytime of any day). I also think you can compare a MTT player to a professional sports bettor - you can go long periods without a win and then score a few big results and then rinse and repeat and hopefully over the course of the year you will have been profitable.
1. You must specialise. All the most profitable professional sports bettors pick not only 1 sport but only a small niche in that sport. Patrick Veitch, who has won over 10 million punting on horse racing in the UK only bets on UK flat racing. He even has a massive team of researchers who do a lot of the work for him, but he as he also works 18 hours days during the flat season he is naturally burnt out by the end of the season.
For the beginner though, what I mean by specialise is concentrate on an area of horse racing where you can get the most information. Information is power so unless you own a shed load of 2 year old horses or are the nephew of Aidan O Brein, there is no point in specialising in 2 year old horse races as you just wont have enough information to go on. Therefore it makes more sense to specialise on handicap races, where each horse in the race must of least have run 3 times to qualify but mainly are run by the same horses year in, year out until they are retired.
The best races then to specialise in are 4 year old plus handicaps in flat and national hunt racing as you have the most information available and you can start to see patterns in horses and therefore pick out some very +EV selections when you have spotted this pattern and the majority of the racing public haven't. This is the bread and butter of successful punting, going against the crowd.
Personally I used to specialise in 4 year old plus UK flat handicaps in the summer, and UK and Irish National Hunt handicap chases and hurdles in the Winter.
2. In your specialised area, when you select a race to analyse, you must go through every horse in the race to develop a shortlist. Below are my 5 essential criteria that every horse must have when you are placing a bet.
a) Going - The horse must be proven on going conditions.
b) Distance - The horse must be proven on the trip
c) Course Type - The horse must be proven on similar type of course
d) Fitness - The horse must have shown that it can operate at optimal levels since its last number of days off the track.
e) Class - The horse must have either won at the class he is currently competing in before or else gave a very good showing in a previous race at the similar or higher class level.
Going and Distance
With regard to going and distance and to a lesser extent course type, I will not fully discount a horse who has never raced on the going if he has extremely good sire stats (15% + strike rate) however I would always give precedence to another horse in a race who has won on for example soft going compared to a horse who has never raced on soft but has sire stats of 18% strike rate for soft going conditions.
With distance, I would also use sire stats if a horse is moving up or down in trip by 1 furlong on the flat, and 2 furlongs in national hunt. With experience, you can tell by looking at a race if a horses needs the extra trip or not and the sire stats can be a great way to back up that visual piece of information.
Course Type
This often overlooked by the general racing public. The best thing about UK and Irish racing is the different types of race courses you will encounter. Cheltenham (left-handed, galloping, undulating and testing track with stiff fences) is totally different to Stratford (left Handed, flat & Sharp) as it is to Sandown (right-handed, galloping, testing track)
A horse who has won twice in Cheltenham will probably never win a race at Stratford and vice versa. Bigger sized horses are more suited to galloping tracks as they can take the turns easier and can maintain a strong galloping pace for longer whereas a smaller sized horse is better suited to sharp tracks (i.e less than 10 furlongs) as most of the running will be going around bends and therefore the bigger horses will not be able to maintain their top galloping speed for long on the stretches.
Also some horses can only run to their best at left handed courses and vice versa. You would actually wonder why trainers persist to run horses which clearly will not win on a certain turning race track, but then you realise by doing this, they will get their Official rating down as horse will appear to be trying but will be hanging left or right the whole way through. You have to be aware that trainers will be trying to manipulate the handicapper a lot of the times in the lower grade races by running horses on unsuitable ground, at the wrong distance, on the wrong course type, or running the horse with a different style during the race all to try and reduce their rating so that they can set up a better chance for themselves to win in the future at a decent price.
I love Cheltenham race meet in March for the simple fact, the course is a stiff testing course which straight away rules out a lot of other horses in the race as they just cant handle it, the grade of racing and pirze money on offer means that everyone is trying to win, and you can nearly always guarantee what the going will be. Therefore if you just use the criteria above and select horses who are proven on the 5 factors (and this applies to the non handicap graded races too, you will see huge profits)
Fitness
To determine a horses fitness, you must look at its previous patterns of how it performed when it returns after a certain number of days off the track. The beauty of handicap races is you have loads of past information to go on and you can see if a horse is 0-5 when returning after an 80 day lay off, whereas he is 3-2-5 when he returns between 15 and 30 days.
Class
A horses class is often overlooked by the racing public. Statistically horses who are moving up in grade/class do not have a good strike rate, however the public will back it blindly if it sees it has won by 5 lengths in its previous race in a lower grade. Analyse past races to see if a horse has won or come close in the grade of race it is racing in today. You can discount a horse if it has failed 2 times at the grade when having all other conditions to suit except for when it is running for a new stable which has a good record at rejuvenating horses.
Also keep in mind that a horse who has placed in a black type race (i.e grade, 1,2,3) will have a more class than a horse who has a good winning record in Class 2 (B) handicaps, so if it is racing in a Class 2 handicap for the first time, do not discount just because it has never won a race.
3. Once you have created your shortlist based on the above criteria, you can now get down to the real dirty work of finding the eventual winner. Sometimes you might only be left with 1 horse, sometimes with 8, you must then start applying other filters to see if you can narrow down the list more. Sometimes the odds will allow to dutch 3 horses left if you can not narrow it down anymore. Then go for it as it is a plus EV move.
However be aware that every time you discount you must have a very valid reason backed up by a decent sample size. Here's a list of filters to reduce the shortlist.
Weight
Some horses as stated earlier have a bigger frame then others, therefore having top weight doesn't make much difference to them, whereas the smaller horse will struggle. Again by studying previous races you will spot a pattern
OR
This is the official rating that the horse racing board's in house handicapper assigns to a horse to determine what weight it should carry in its next horse race. The OR is updated weekly, therefore you sometimes see trainers turn out a horse 3 times in a week to try and take advantage of this before the handicapper reassigns it a higher rating. For an excellent explanation of official hores racing handicapping see this article written by good friend Malcom Smith over at www.UKhorseracing.co.uk.
After a while, horses will reach their peak and start to hover around a certain OR mark. Therefore it will be unlikely that it will win if its OR mark is higher than its highest winning mark unless the horse is an improving progressive sort. But for older horses, this OR mark becomes more important and can be more relied upon.
Field Size
Some horses will not race unless they are covered in the pack, other horses need room otherwise they get into trouble during the race. The trick is to identify these type of horses. You will start to spot where some horses only win in races with less than 8 runners, but never figure in races with more than 12. You can safely assume that he needs the perfect ride in a big runner race but more than likely will not get that (This is when you can factor in the Jockeys ability to see if its ok to rule out this horse or not) The field size matters more in National Hunt, as some horses prefer seeing the jumps early/later and as they are pack animals prefer chasing a leader than actually leading
Seasonal
Alot of horses prefer to run in certain times of the year. This could be down to how a trainer prepares the horse over the course of the season and aims it to be at full fitness come March time for example, but other times horses just perform better in certain months. Again by looking at past patterns you will begin to spot these trends.
Trainer Statistics
8 years ago it was a very profitable trend to follow certain trainers at certain race tracks for certain race types. This edge has slowly eroded since the markets have caught on, however it still needs to be factored in when trying to finalise your short list.
Trainer - Jockey combinations
If you try and follow this blindly by backing winning Trainer-Jockey Combos, you will most likely end up with a loss. However it is a good tool to have when you are trying to reduce the shortlist as some stats are just too good to ignore.
Jockey Booking
This is actually a powerful indicator. However this again doesn't mean much if the horse doesn't first qualify for the 5 essential criteria above. Also if you only ever back horses with the top jockeys on board you are forgoing on EV as, the odds will drop on a horse with the likes of Ruby Walsh or Tony McCoy on board, but odds will still remain good on a horse if for example the jockey booking was Graham Lee, who is a very underrated performer. Look back over past races and see how the horse has performed under their guidance before. You will start to see profitable trends and indicators.
Gambling Stables
There are a few ways to do this. One is manually record stables where horses have been heavily backed and won. Another way is to look at a horses previous wins and see what the average odds were. The lower the winning odds, the bigger chance that the stable money only goes down when the horse has a good chance of winning (Kevin Ryan is an example of a gambling stable). The higher the odds, means the horse has won races that they weren't fully expecting to win and therefore less likely a gambling stable (Veneita Williams comes to mind here for being an honest stable).
Post Race Comments
This is often overlooked. If you see what trainers, jockeys and owners have said to the press after a horse has won (See the racing post website for all the comments), you can pick up some useful information which can help you lean one way or the other on a selection.
Pace of the race.
To understand the pace of the race you first need to figure out what is each horse's preferred running style. They can be broken down into front runners, prominent runners, Hold up horses. Here's is a fantastic article which details the breakdown of winning % of different horses running styles compared to the actual number of race entries of horses with different running styles.
It shows that you should really be concentrating on front running and prominent horses as it accounts for 65% of winners compared to being only 50% of entries in races. Front runners in particular account for 20% of winners even though they only supply 11% of runners in a race.
You can use this to your advantage once you get to know all of the different course types. By backing a front running horse that satisfies the 5 essential criteria on a race course which has a sharp track with a short run in, you have added a few % EV points to your selection.
Another factor here is analysing the previous 3 races the horse has ran in and check out the in running comments. Especially look at the horses who came placed or came outside the top 4 but were close near the end. Keep and eye out for comments like "finished strongly", "kept on well", "stayed on well", "kept on final furlong"and for other tidbits like "hampered" but then "finished strongly". These can point towards a horse who is on the upward curve and given the perfect conditions in the next race will have a very good chance of winning.
Another thing to factor in is if a race does not have any natural front runners, then the race will not be run at a true pace, therefore could throw up some very unusual results. It may mean that the horse who has the best speed on a flat track will win when it drives all out in the last furlong.
When the pace of the race is guaranteed, the classier horse which satisfies the essential criteria will more often than not win the race.
4. Resources
For 6 years, before getting lured into the world of Online Poker, I punted successfully on horse racing and I used the following resources
Ratings from ukhorseracing.co.uk.
The ratings are based upon advanced pure mathematics but are presented in a an easy to read pdf. The main feature in my view that sets this service apart from alot of pretenders is the 'Class' filter they derive using their mathematical approach. Fantastically accurate for Non Handicap graded races in both National Hunt and Flat racing in the both UK and Irish racing. They also have a great forum where you can exchange ideas with the other members and have recently introduced a Racing Bot where you plug in all your profitable racing systems and sit back and watch.
Stats and ratings from ukracestats.com
I only found this website 4 years into my sports betting career, and it was free for nearly 2 years after that. It is without doubt the biggest time saving tool when it comes to analysing a race using all the criteria and filters I have mentioned above in the article. The only negative is that they only cover UK horse racing.
Racing Post Website- Last year they introduced a subscription service and I suppose it was about time considering all the information that it provides. It is essential for anyone serious about racing. I used it to confirm my findings from the ratings and stats mentioned above.
At The Races Website - Good for watching previous races and offers different race analysis from the Racing Post. As far as I know this is still free.
I hope that after reading the above that you will now not just throw money blindly at the favourite when you have a punt on the horses. Put a bit of time and effort into the selection process and give yourself a +EV chance of winning.



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Know About The History of Horse Racing

History of Horse Racing

There has been horse racing of sorts for many many years. Horse racing began in Assyria in c.1500 B.C. and Chariot Racing was a popular event in Roman Times. It was in fact the Romans who are thought to have ran the first horse race in the UK, however the first actual recorded event of a meeting was in 1174, this took place at a horse fair in the north-west part of London called Smithfield.
Royal Connections

The Royal Family are behind many of the historic developments that changed and shaped racing over the years, with Henry II importing horses specifically for breeding and Charles II being the first to introduce a set of rules in 1664 (for the Newmarket Town Plate). It was in 1752 the Jockey Club formed and penned The Rules of Racing.
First horse races

The Derby is the oldest flat race having begun in 1780 at the Earl of Derby's estate in Epsom, it was run on a sweepstakes basis and is still of course being run every year now, as is the Grand National which was first run in 1856, however the first recorded national hunt (as we know it now) race was in Cork, Ireland in 1752, it was a 4 miles 5 furlongs contest between two church steeples and that is the reason the term 'steeplechase' was coined.
Purpose and types of horse racing

The purpose of a H.race is to determine the fastest of two or more horses over a specific distance with the first horse to cross the winning line being the winner.
Horse Racing Categories - Flat

In the UK and Ireland there are three variations of race categories. The first is Flat Racing, where horses run over a distance between 5 furlongs and 2 miles 6 furlongs on turf. The flat season starts in March and runs through to November with varying quality of races with Group 1 contests being the highest. The youngest horses competing on the flat are 2 years old.
Horse Racing Categories - All Weather

All Weather Racing is the second race category and is similar to flat racing other than contests take place on an artificial surface, which can be used all year round (hence the name All Weather). Many of the All Weather H.racing tracks also have floodlit tracks meaning they can offer night racing.
Horse Racing Categories - National Hunt

The third category is National Hunt where horses compete on turf over longer distances ranging from 1 mile 6 furlongs (very minimal number of junior bumper races) and 4 miles 4 furlongs. Within National Hunt there are further classification types, these are Bumpers (also known as National Hunt Flat races) where there are no obstacles and are aimed at giving horses the experience of competing on a race track, Chases where the competitors must clear fences and Hurdles where they must jump hurdles. This means for example that you can have a handicap chase or a maiden hurdle etc. The difference between a fence and a hurdle is quite significant with a fence being sturdier and higher. A hurdle race will only contain hurdles whereas a chase can contain a variety of obstacles including water jumps and ditches as well as fences.
Horse Racing Classification

Within each category of racing there are different types of contests dependent on a horse's experience and ability. Generally races are categorised by an age group (for example 4 year olds+) and/or an official rating bracket (a score given to each horse by the handicapper based on its performance to date). Maiden races are for horses who have not yet won a race. Handicaps are when a horse is weighted dependent on its past ability - in an ideal world, a handicap should result in all horses crossing the finish line at the same time. Nursery races are handicap races on the flat/all weather for two year old horses. Non handicaps are when all horses carry the same weight (although this figure can be adjusted based on penalties applied as set out in the race terms - for example the rules may state that all horses will carry 9 stone but that an additional weight of 3 pounds will be applied to horses who have won in the last 6 weeks).



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The History of Horse Racing In North America

While horse racing enjoys popularity the world over - and has for quite some time - the history of the sport in North America is particularly interesting. The first horse racing course in America was in what is now known as Hempstead Plains in Nassau County, New York. The course, Newmarket, opened its gates in 1665, and in doing so, it helped kick off the rich tradition of the horse racing sport in America. Due to the success of Newmarket, many other racing tracks were opened, including the Belmont track in New York.
Belmont is the largest dirt course in all of thoroughbred racing. It opened in May 1905, and continues to be one of the most popular venues for horse racing and is noted as "the big time" for many racers. It is owned and operated by the New York Racing Association, which also owns Saratoga and Aqueduct. The biggest race at Belmont is the immensely popular Belmont Stakes. A statue of the legendary horse, Secretariat, stands in the center of the track, as he set a world record for his 1973 race there [amongst other achievements over the course of his career.]
The three most important races in North American horse racing come together to form the "triple crown." Including the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Preakness Stakes. Beyond that, many racing enthusiasts enjoy the Breeders' Cup races. The former is held earlier in the year, and the latter, later. As such, different values are placed on the wins. While some prefer the classic triple crown to the new breed of race that is the Breeders' Cup, many like the new race and the way it is held at different tracks every year.
Interestingly enough, while gambling is generally frowned upon in the United States, horse race betting is regulated and sanctioned by individual states. As such, betting on horse races via legitimate channels is legal, whereas other types of sports bets aren't legal.
There are different types of horse racing that are popular in the United States. One way to differentiate is the type of track - dirt, polytrack, and grass are the most common surfaces, though some race types will incorporate more than one of these into the same track. Thoroughbred racing is the most common type of race - and the one most Americans are familiar with, though quarter horse racing and harness racing also enjoy their own popularity. Arabian horse racing is uncommon, but there are enthusiasts who enjoy that sort of racing.
Horse race tracks are all different lengths, depending on the type of race, the surface, and the style of racing/horses that will be participating. Interestingly enough, many horse breeders choose to raise their horses with specific types of races and courses in mind, choosing studs and fillies who have the proper genetic makeup to breed strong race horses.
There are differences in the races and how the horses are bred for specific races. For example, thoroughbreds are bred to run longer distances, while quarter horses are generally faster. As such, the two have different builds. Thoroughbreds are taller and leaner than quarter horses, who are bred to be shorter and more muscular. A quarter horse race is generally held on a straight track and is much faster with a different type of competition than a thoroughbred race. A thoroughbred race is held on something more like a car race track, and it is easier for a specific horse and jockey to break out of the back for a clear winner than in quarter horse racing.
As you can see, there is a diverse and solid history of horse racing in the United States. Although horses are not as popular as they once were for things such as transportation, show and sports horses are still incredibly popular and fascinating to Americans of all ages.



Your Horse [http://www.yourhorsesports.com] Sports

Selecting A Horse Racing Partnership

Horse Racing Partnerships come in many shapes and sizes. So much so, that it is sometimes difficult to discern the differences between competitors. So what does a novice, or even an experienced investor, do once they have decided to invest in a horse racing syndicate? With a multitude of variable choices available, the task of selecting a racing stable can be overwhelming and complex.
Last year, the Green Monkey, a two-year old colt in training, sold for a record price of sixteen million dollars. Some of the top prices paid can be very discouraging to individual horse investors seeking to get into the racing game. With the inherent risks associated with horse racing, and they are substantial, the concept of participating as a partner in a syndicate has become a popular way to participate in the "Sport of Kings" and minimize risk.
Participation in a horse racing syndicate should primarily be done for entertainment purposes with low financial expectations. The notion that your first racehorse will win the Kentucky Derby is highly unlikely. Your odds of that occurring are about one in forty thousand. Maybe it's a little better than the odds of winning the lottery, but still very hard to achieve. If your entrance into the racing game is based upon the idea of entertainment and enjoyment, you're probably in the right frame of mind to get into the business.
Most horse trainers will tell you there is no way to know for sure if a horse will do well in racing - until it actually races. I've had horses train great and be huge disappointments in the afternoon. Conversely, I've also had horses that have shown little during training become stakes winners. You just never know. Horses range in prices from a few hundred dollars to, like I said earlier, sixteen million dollars. There are studies that look at the success of racehorses by price range. Strangely enough, there isn't that much of a difference - statistically. Your odds of having a better horse if you pay one million dollars is not much better than a horse you bought for one hundred thousand dollars. The difference is minuscule. And that folks, is what allows average people to own great racehorses.
No doubt, racing partnerships are the way to go for the average participant. It allows you entry into the game for a fraction of the cost and it allows you to diversify your risk. Typically, for every three racehorses you purchase, only one will do well. That doesn't mean that the one successful horse will turn a profit, just that it will be able to compete and come close to breaking-even. If you get lucky, you might even make a profit. The last study I recollect concluded that only about seventeen percent of racehorses make a profit. Granted, you can get lucky and do very well financially, but it's rare.
The cost to acquire and train a horse is substantial, which is another reason why partnerships are the way to participate. If you enter the racing game purchasing one horse and that horse performs poorly, it's likely to leave a bad taste in your mouth. The key is to diversify by investing in several horses. Sometimes the good ones will carry the bad ones. Also keep in mind that poorly performing racehorses will eventually be retired, reducing your loses and increasing your bottom-line. Unless there is a good reason for the poor performance of a racehorse, the partnership should retire the horse and move on. Experience has shown that poorly performing horses, after several attempts at different distances on different surfaces, are unlikely to improve significantly. Get rid of them. It's sometimes difficult to do when you have invested so much money into the horse, but most of the time you are just throwing away good money after bad.

Some primary things to consider in the selection of a partnership include reputation, cost and location.
Look to unbiased people who can give you constructive feedback on existing partnerships. Keep in mind, that all partnerships can offer you positive references. That's useless. Everyone has a few friends and family members who will vouch for them. That's why I used the word "unbiased". Hang out at the track and ask a few people who have knowledge. Keep in mind that they may have an agenda also, so be careful. Sometimes things like communications may make a difference. How does the managing partner communicate information to the partners and how often? Are they receptive to phone calls and e-mails? Do they answer them in a timely manner? (Probably everyone provides good follow-up/communications before you buy into a partnership, but what about after the sale?) Did they properly inform you of all the risks? Do they utilize a "hard sell" approach? Are they helpful at getting you licensed? Ultimately, you will have to judge for yourself in order to arrive at a decision.
Do your homework. Ask around and do research on the Internet - it can tell you much about a racing stable. Would you be happy buying one percent of a horse for $1,000 only to later discover that the partnership purchased the horse at a sale for $2,000 a month ago? Research what they paid for the horse. If the horse was ever sold at public auction, the information is available. View their website and read all the pages. Training costs can also vary substantially from track to track. The bigger, more popular urban tracks can be twice as expensive as the more rural tracks.

Where will your horse be stabled? That will impact both your cost and the opportunity to see it race live. If you live near Belmont Park in New York, you will probably enjoy your investment more if you can see it race live. Admission to the saddling paddock before the race, owner's box seats, socializing with your other partners and participating in the winner's circle photograph are all benefits that are enjoyable for most partner's. It's hard to do if you live in New York and your horse races at Santa Anita (California) or Gulfstream Park (Florida). Keep this in mind when choosing a horse racing partnership.
You may also want to look at the way the managing partner makes a profit off the syndicate. Is it through marked-up prices, management fees, or a combination of both? Some partnerships will syndicate horses at their cost and charge no management fee. Why? Because they will retain a large percentage of a horse and they are just looking just to minimize their risk. Syndicates such as these make their money by having successful racehorses. My syndicate, Dream Team Racing Stable, is just such a syndicate. There is nothing wrong with a syndicate making a profit, but partnerships where the managing partner's profit is driven by success on the track seem the best way to go. Partnerships who collect large monthly management fees are unlikely to retire poorly performing horses, as it is not in their best interest. They will race the horse forever and you will continue to pay and lose money for a long time to come, while the management continues to profit. Choose a syndicate where your best interest is in alignment with the syndicate's best interest. Partnerships with excessive mark-ups and/or management fees are not in your best interest.
Cheap is not always best. I see all kinds of syndicates that offer horses at really cheap prices and seldom do I ever see those horses succeed on the track. Knowing that it costs about $45,000-$55,000 per year to train a horse (not including acquisition costs) at Belmont, I'd be very leery of partnerships that are offering a horse for sale for less than cost. A horse being offered for sale for $29,900 with all expenses included through the end of the year, well, quite frankly it scares me. Are they trying to recoup some of their investment on an injured horse? If not, what are they doing to cut costs? What part of the horses care and feeding program is being reduced? No matter how they do it, it's not in the best interest of the horse or yourself.
Bigger is not always better. Bigger outfits spend substantial money on advertising and marketing. You see their advertisements on the horse racing television stations all the time and their marketing is brilliant. They have the nicest websites and the nicest brochures. Don't be fooled. You need to look underneath the make-up to see what's really there. And besides, who pays for all that shine and gloss? You do, in the prices you pay to participate.
Claiming partnerships are becoming more and more popular. They allow you entry into the game at a very low price with a horse that is currently racing. Keep in mind that when you claim a horse, you may be claiming someone else's problem and now their problem is your problem. I've seen horses claimed that were completely broken down and totally incapable of ever racing again. When you claim a horse, you do so at your own risk without the ability to vet or inspect the horse close-up. It is very, very risky. If a horse is running in a cheap claimer there is a reason why. Keep this in mind. I have never participated in a claiming partnership and have never offered one. I doubt I ever will.
If I can reiterate a few points, it would be to do your research and diversify. If your experience in a partnership is not a good one, don't give-up. Find another one. Be patient. Eventually, you'll find a horse racing partnership that suits your needs and desires.
If you have any questions regarding horse racing partnerships, please feel free to e-mail me at info@dreamteamracingstable.com or visit http://www.dreamteamracingstable.com to view our website. I wish you the very best of luck in your quest to find a racehorse partnership that meets your desires.



Selecting a Horse Racing Partnership
Food For Thought
By James Culver, Managing Partner
Dream Team Racing Stable, LLC
http://www.dreamteamracingstable.com
info@dreamteamracingstable.com

Using Horse Racing Tips...

Using horse racing tips takes away all the fun?
There are some people who claim that using horse racing tips takes away the fun, the truth is that these people have never been to a good horse racing track just yet, or they have no idea of what exactly is going on inside the track nor used the right horse racing tips.
Once you get to understand every single method and process available to you in terms of horse racing, it is exciting to experience this sort of event and using the right horse racing tips. It is not even expensive if you really know how to properly place your bets, and the best thing about using horse racing tips, is when you actually make great profits out from this practice!
In the next few lines I will tell you the most basic elements of using other people horse racing tips right, so that you may get started and enjoy all the benefits that this practice has to offer. First of all let us begin with some basic horse racing tips:
Win horse. The win horse is, obviously, the horse who actually wins the race, the one that arrives in first place to the end of the track.

Place horse. The place horse may be considered as the second place horse, is the one that finishes the race just after the winning horse.

Show horse. The show horse is, as you have probably guessed by now, the horse that arrives in third place to the end of the track.
Now that you know the basic terminology you can start using horse racing tips, let us continue with the next lesson, which is related to the actual wagers you may place on each race.
Daily Double. If you have just found out that you have a gift for selecting the winning horses, then the Daily Double is just for you. This kind of wager is placed on 2 different races, and you will need to select the 2 horses which will win each race. Needless to say, the Daily Double is a high paying wager so you better use some professional horse racing tips.
Quinella. If you find yourself in a situation where you can not decide between 2 horses, then you should play a Quinella. With a Quinella you choose 2 different horses and you win if they arrive in first and second place, no matter which one of them comes in first.

Generally professionals never give this kind of horse racing tips.
Exacta. Just as the Quinella, only that this time around you will have to bet on the order as well, pick two horses and decide which one of them is coming in first, and which one is coming in second. This is one of the highest paying bets out there, definitely a must.
These were the most basic elements plus a little introduction about using horse racing tips, further lessons and even some great horse racing tips in the upcoming days.



John Anthony?s horse racing tips have helped over 1,288 people worldwide making a regular income with horse betting. His website http://www.Sure2Profit.com provides a wealth of informative articles and horse racing tips for PRO and beginners alike.

The Role of Weather on Horse Racing Tips

When racing tipsters make their predictions, they have to consider factors like the horse's health, age, and performances on past races. Also, the tipster has to study weather conditions, race track conditions, and jockey-horse chemistry to make a relatively accurate guess or prediction on which horse will finish first. Most of these salient factors are too scientific and complicated for regular punters. But you can easily learn how to observe the weather and see how it affects how horses run in a certain race.
Watch Horses Run In The Rain
A soggy horse track is a good way to observe how horses perform when it rains during a race. You see, some horses seem to run better on wet tracks while others do not. Some horses prefer dry tracks instead of wet ones. That is why you have to know how a particular horse fared in rain-drenched tracks compared to dry race tracks. If the horse runs well in both wet and dry tracks, then you don't have to consider weather as a contributing factor to your horse racing tips. However, if there are inconsistencies and you can't see a positive trend, this means that weather greatly affects how the horses run in the race.
Correlate Weather With How The Horse Finishes In A Race
So that you can test if the horse racing tips that you get are any good, you can associate the past performances of a particular horse and the weather conditions of its previous races. If you find out that the horse tends to finish in the top 2 when it rains, you should put your money on that horse only if the weather bureau forecasts rain in that particular race. Tipsters think that way when they factor in weather conditions into their horse racing tips. When the day is sunny and the track is dry and hot, they would never put your money on a horse which tends to perform well when it rains.
Do Not Push Your Luck
You also have to remember that in very harsh weather conditions, some horses may win out of pure luck. The win may be a fluke. Unless you really know that the horse you are betting on thrives in bad weather conditions, the best thing do is to think that all horses have fairly equal odds to finish first. An underdog can basically outrun the favorite in any given race. Yet, your horse racing tips will tell you that a certain horse's odds are lower than most, and that is where you should put your money on.
Professional tipsters, be it on the race tracks or online, rely so heavily on steady figures and stats to come up with very accurate predictions. That is why consistency is very important if you want to study the role of weather in predicting the outcome of horse races. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to study the relationship between weather patterns and the horses' performance during earlier races to get horse racing tips.



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Why Use a Horse Racing Betting System?

Considering using somebody's horse racing betting system?
Horse racing betting systems are like lifelines to horse racing enthusiasts. These systems are created to guide those who are putting in money at the races. Each horse betting system is designed for a different type of race and different category of horses. This is because all races are not big derby races, some are small and the participating horses can be amateurs or relatively new at the races.
This difference has prompted horse racing betting system experts to formulate different horse betting system for each type of race. Horses racing betting systems are like a guide to show you a number of methods that you could help you to deduce the winner. Horse racing system will help you so that you do not lose your money at the races instead you win and take some bonus home each time.
Using a horse racing betting system is a good start, as it educates a newcomer about how to go about the races and how he can earn quite some amount of money. There are numbers of horse racing betting systems, therefore each one can choose and pick the one he wants or believes in rather than each person using the same one.
(Usually) Horse racing betting systems do not materialize out of thin air, it is quite reverse actually, these are based on proper statistics that are presented by the previous races. Previous races help in determining health and form of each horse, this makes it possible to deduce and identify the probable winner at each race.
Horse racing betting systems also change basis of their statistics, each system maker relies on some statistical information given by sporting dailies, the dailies are unlikely to make statistical mistakes since they maintain perfect data.
Horse racing betting is to be done only by those who have money they can spare towards horse racing, it is against unwritten horse racing rules to put in money from domestic funds, this will not spare any time and lead the family to ruins.
To avoid this from happening, horse-racing enthusiasts can create banks and put in all horse racing funds in the banks and decide how much money they would put on the races each month. This way they will avoid using domestic funds and instead enjoy the thrill of horse racing.
Horse racing betting systems are speculative business, therefore you cannot be sure that the system you use to deduce the winner is perfect there can be uncertainties in this game, so being prepared for such uncertainties is necessary.



John Anthony's Horse Racing Betting System is used by over 2,344 punters worldwide as their only source of income. John is the director of the horse racing tips website http://www.sure2profit.com , the number one resource for like-minded people who want to make a wealthy living betting on horse racing.

You Must Be a Contrarian to Win at Horse Racing!

Betting is a hell of a lot more fun when you win. The public generally views anyone that bets on horse racing as a gambler, translation a "loser." With my early Computer Group success, I have never considered myself either a gambler or a loser.
You must approach racing with the mindset of a stock market analyst. If you look at it any other way, your just another compulsive gambler. (Sorry if anybody is offended, but we need to keep it real) Racing is a new financial market that is slowly catching up to the rest of the world.
With the invention of peer-to-peer exchange wagering, racing can be attacked, conquered, and soundly beaten. Advanced algorithms we use in our computer programs still have a decided advantage over the public. We are not talking about the software you buy for £49.95 on the internet, but proprietary databases run by main frame computers.
THINK OUT OF THE BOX, BE A CONTRARIAN
To beat the bookmakers and flog the public, you need to "think out of the box" and do the opposite of what their doing. This is only accomplished by contrarian thinking. Instead of betting horses to win, like the rest of the cattle, become a bookmaker and take a stand against public opinion by laying horses to win. If you are a newbie to all this, let me quickly explain that in any event, you can either Back a horse which means your betting to win. Conversely, I take a contrarian position against you, which means I am Laying your horse to lose.
When backing, you bet 10 to win 50. I choose to be on the other side by putting up £50 in order to win 10. Sound crazy. I am asking you to risk a lot to only win a little. Do not leave just yet we are only getting started. Think about it, all your loser friends are betting horses to win year in and year out. Are they retired and living on a golf course, offshore in Paradise, like I am? Or would they rather borrow money from YOU each week until payday.
Casinos and Bookmakers in Las Vegas welcome all comers to bet anything they wish on race horses. Look on the internet, hundreds of casinos will give you a bonus, if you promise to lose money with them. Maybe these casinos and bookmakers are on to something. Bookmakers are successful because they understand the mathematical odds of racing and sports wagering. We started in 1979, and have spent years to learn the accurate mathematics on what constitutes a loser. Most people cannot figure out a system that is foolproof and mathematically correct. Math geniuses are few and far between.
Let us examine this proposition a little bit closer. You are in the position of being David verses Goliath when backing a horse to win. To win, absolutely everything needs to go your way. You need to trust the trainer. Has he been properly placed his horse in a race with his friends. (His friends of course are other horses that he can beat) Next, the Jockey must give you a perfect ride. Do not move to soon, do not get shut off, do not go too fast, is he an apprentice. Ouch, and do not go too slow, or move to late, and most important. Do not fall off.
The horse also needs to cooperate for you to collect. He must feel like running today. Those new blinkers or tongue ties need to work. What about that deep muddy track or the artificial surface, has he run well on it before? He cannot become spooked by a new track surface that is new to him. There are a million more little tidbits that can separate you from your cash.
Allow me to take a look at the Lay side of this same event. I have decided to error on the side of the casinos and bookmakers. I will bet that your horse will not win, I will be laying him to lose. Last time I looked, they were constructing some pretty nice casinos with this kind of thinking. And the good news is, you will need everything to go right. I only need one thing for you to go wrong. I also have another huge bonus. I have every other horse in the race running for me. So in a race of 15 runners, I am cheering for any of 14 of them to win. If you have spent years backing horses and going home a loser, maybe it is time to switch teams and start laying horses.
I WANT TO RETIRE YOU ASK CAN RACING MAKE ME RICH?
The internet is full of innumerable computer programs, systems, books and manuals that supposedly give you a chance to retire. Most of them will take your money and give you little more than empty promises in return. These programs are not terrible, there are just not sophisticated enough to give you the edge needed to win To be competitive, you must combine state of the art technology with mathematics and meticulous record keeping.
Can this be accomplished by hand or on your home computer you ask? Certainly, but you will need Santa's little helpers working for you to input all the data. Also, make sure you are using computers with artificial intelligence. In other words, the computer learns each day from the results and makes corrections to the program when needed. No software program is guaranteed to work in the future. Racing is in a constant state of flux and change. It is imperative that you stay ahead of rule adjustments, track bias, weather, etc. or you will be eaten up by change.
HOW THE SELECTION PROCESS WORKS
Remember with lay betting, you need to adopt a reverse strategy for evaluating horses and racing conditions. You must analyze how a horse will perform under existing track conditions. You need to take a look at race shape. Is there much speed in the race today? What part of the track should your jockey place the horse?
Many people think they have a system, only to discover that it does not work all the time. To be validated as successful, your program or system must work at all tracks, covering all types of racing, anytime of the year.
If your systems under performs, you must resist chasing your losses. This only leads to stupid decisions, and that of course is never good. Remember, scared money "NEVER WINS." LIVE BY NUMBERS AND FORGOT HUMAN EMOTION.
We are good at what we do, because all methodology is 100% Mechanical and subject to human emotions. Over 100,000 races went into the Matrix Profile to find out what makes a loser. This is the most important line in this article. You MUST take Emotion out of the handicapping equation, unless of course you are a HAL 9000 computer. You will only WIN by strictly trusting and following the numbers.
WHAT DO YOU WANT TO ACCOMPLISH?
Before designing a system or methodology you need to outline your goals. Mine were very simple, but reaching the objective took a couple of years.
1. Design a method that would work everywhere. (All tracks, weather conditions, class, artificial surface, turf, types of race, maiden, stakes, claiming, etc.)
2.Design a method that could function with Betting Robots. The only thing the Bot would need to sort, are the odds. (Bet Only horses at 9.9 or less Betfair) Some people are not financially able to stay home and sit by their computer.
3.Maintain consistent results through out the year, without long losing streaks.
HOW TO BUILD A LAY SYSTEM
After our database of over 100,000 races was in place, we had to decide what was important. To be successful at laying horses, we needed to profile a loser. What were the key traits that are shared with the majority of losing horses? Each event is independent of all others. First we must compare all entries while assigning and deducting points for past results. Not only do we need a profile of a loser, we also need to profile who stands the best chance of winning.
In simply terms, I want to assign each horse a percentage chance of winning the race
Example Race:   
Horse A = 75.00% Odds of Winning - 25.00% Odds of Losing
Horse B = 66.66% Odds of Winning - 33.33% Odds of Losing
Horse C = 58.33% Odds of Winning - 41.67% Odds of Losing
Horse D = 55.60% Odds of Winning - 44.40% Odds of Losing
Horse E = 38.90% Odds of Winning - 61.11% Odds of Losing
Horse F = 30.60% Odds of Winning - 69.40% Odds of Losing
Horse G = 27.80% Odds of Winning - 72.22% Odds of Losing
Horse H = 11.11% Odds of Winning - 88.88% Odds of Losing
Horse I   =   8.33 % Odds of Winning - 91.67% Odds of Losing
Look at the raw data above, which of the horses stands the smallest chance of winning the race. Which horses do you want to lay? Is your Answer to lay both Horse "H" and Horse "I"? If so, you can go sit in the corner and put on the dunce cap. This is only a part of the equation. You must know what the Betfair closing odds will be to make that decision.
Horse Selection "I", will only win 8% of the time. So that means if you Lay Selections "I" you will collect 92% of the time. It still sounds pretty good, a system where you will win 92% of the time. But what are the Betfair Odds? If that horse goes to post at 150.0 to 1, you will be in big trouble. First you will never be laying horses at 150 to 1 unless you have an interest in the Royal Family treasury. To win 100, you will need to make sure you have 15,000 in your trading account to cover the days when he does win.
Carrying on with the example, if you only lost once every hundred races, instead of the projected eight times (8%), you would still be negative 5,800.
You must look for an acceptable win percentage, and decide on the largest amount you want to risk. Remember, the public is always the indicator of who will win, so the lower the odds, the more chance a horse has of winning. That is why many people will never lay a horse below 3 or 4 to one.
I am comfortable laying horses at 9.9 Betfair or less. That means, my selections can be laid, at 9 to 1 or less. (If you are not familiar with Betfair odds, they add an additional 1.0 to each odds quoted, which represents the amount of your wager)
My raw strike rate is about 83%, plus or minus 2% percent. Here is an easy example. If we lay 100 races, we will win 8,300 with my consistent 83% strike rate. Looking at the last 20,000 selections, my average losing lay price on Betfair was 5.31. I expect to lose 17% of the time. Calculating my losses on 100 races, I can expect to lose 7,327. (That's 4.31 Odds X 17 Losers = 7,327). So the profit over 100 selections is 973 or 9.73% percent.
The secret is to turn you bankroll over as many times as possible each month. Using my raw selections, I average 650 to 700 raw data plays per month. Which means you can turn your bank over six to seven times every thirty days and turn that 973 into a lot more. Those numbers are not bad considering the Bank of England is only offering 1.7% a year, when you deduct for 3% inflation.
THE SECRET TO DOUBLING YOUR PROFITS
The next secret is to double stake low odd selections. As I have stated before, because the market is made up of a pool of opinions, the lower the odds, the greater chance a horse has of winning. Our selections going off at 3 to 1 or less, (4.0 Betfair) we still show a strike rate of 77%. Not as good as our normal 84%, but you are risking a significantly smaller portion of your bankroll on each bet. Double staking short priced selections increases your bottom line. If you lose 100 on a selection that is 6.0, your loss will be 500. When you lose 200 on a selection that is 3.5 your loss is also 500. But we have big bonus here. When you win at 3.5 Betfair, and you will win 77% of the time, you collect twice your normal stake or 200.
This is not an overnight "get rich scheme." It is a solid, stair step progression, where your bankroll grows at a very steady pace. Make every wager unit the same amount, with the exception of the double stake unit with post time odds of 4.0 Betfair or less. Start small, and be comfortable with your staking unit.
You should have 40 to 80 units in your bankroll before starting. If you want to win 10 per race, you will need to set aside 400 to 800. If you start at the 100 level, conversely you will need 4,000 to 8,000. Do not increase your units, until you have won at least half the amount of your starting bankroll. When a raise in stakes is appropriate you should only increase your wagers by 10% to 20%. Move slowly and do not become a hog. Remember, "Pigs get Fat, but Hogs get slaughtered".
You may be able to improve on my Raw Ratings and increase the strike rate with a system of your own. By either increasing the strike rate thus eliminating losers, you will fatten your bottom line.
TIME TO APPLY SOME FILTERS
I literally have thousands of little filters in my database, that I can apply to hopeful improve my Raw Numbers. A filter example is: "Eliminate any runner who has won more than 90% of his races." Or, "Eliminate all runners who finished second in their last race". There are literally thousands of Filters you can dream up to improve the Raw Ratings.
Some are completely useless, while others can seriously improve your results. Before applying filters, you need to have enough data, to prove your conclusion. I have found by applying 5 filters, I can increase my strike rate about 3% to 4%. This may not sound like much, but it makes a huge difference. At the end of an average month, I will win almost exactly the same amount in dollars or pounds, as with the Raw Numbers. But I will only have about one-third as many selections; however my Return on Investment will triple,
Average Monthly return with a 100 Stake using Raw Numbers             
Strike Rate 83.9% - Selections 524 - Average Profit 7,633 -13.7% Return
Average Monthly return with a £100 Stake using Filtered Raw Numbers 
Strike Rate 87.9% - Selections 160 - Average Profit 6,400 - 38.2% Return
As you can see, by improving your strike rate a few points, and eliminating unnecessary selections, you could in fact triple your minimum stake. Again, you must be very careful whenever you filter broad base winning raw numbers. Having a strike rate of 83.9% over 1,000 races is much more impressive than a strike rate of 87.9% over 100 races.
I have fallen into the over filtering trap myself. At one time, I was applying over 30 different filters. Short term success was fantastic, but the numbers will catch up with you if your not careful. Take your time, do your research, and trust the numbers.



I hope your are intrigued about the power of professional computer handicapping. We have developed proprietary main frame programs, that use artificial intelligence to learn every day. Continue to learn, and take advantage of our FREE Research articles. I also offer a FREE [http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com] daily selection for U.K. and Irish horse racing each day.
Steve was part of the Computer Group, who had a betting pool of over $40 million dollars and beat Las Vegas in the 1980's. Later, some of the programmers attack horse racing in Hong Kong where the stakes and profits were even greater. He is now retired, and offers he resources to others who share the dream of "Winning at the Races" [http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com]