Horse Racing Partnerships come in many shapes and sizes. So much so, that it is sometimes difficult to discern the differences between competitors. So what does a novice, or even an experienced investor, do once they have decided to invest in a horse racing syndicate? With a multitude of variable choices available, the task of selecting a racing stable can be overwhelming and complex.
Last year, the Green Monkey, a two-year old colt in training, sold for a record price of sixteen million dollars. Some of the top prices paid can be very discouraging to individual horse investors seeking to get into the racing game. With the inherent risks associated with horse racing, and they are substantial, the concept of participating as a partner in a syndicate has become a popular way to participate in the "Sport of Kings" and minimize risk.
Participation in a horse racing syndicate should primarily be done for entertainment purposes with low financial expectations. The notion that your first racehorse will win the Kentucky Derby is highly unlikely. Your odds of that occurring are about one in forty thousand. Maybe it's a little better than the odds of winning the lottery, but still very hard to achieve. If your entrance into the racing game is based upon the idea of entertainment and enjoyment, you're probably in the right frame of mind to get into the business.
Most horse trainers will tell you there is no way to know for sure if a horse will do well in racing - until it actually races. I've had horses train great and be huge disappointments in the afternoon. Conversely, I've also had horses that have shown little during training become stakes winners. You just never know. Horses range in prices from a few hundred dollars to, like I said earlier, sixteen million dollars. There are studies that look at the success of racehorses by price range. Strangely enough, there isn't that much of a difference - statistically. Your odds of having a better horse if you pay one million dollars is not much better than a horse you bought for one hundred thousand dollars. The difference is minuscule. And that folks, is what allows average people to own great racehorses.
No doubt, racing partnerships are the way to go for the average participant. It allows you entry into the game for a fraction of the cost and it allows you to diversify your risk. Typically, for every three racehorses you purchase, only one will do well. That doesn't mean that the one successful horse will turn a profit, just that it will be able to compete and come close to breaking-even. If you get lucky, you might even make a profit. The last study I recollect concluded that only about seventeen percent of racehorses make a profit. Granted, you can get lucky and do very well financially, but it's rare.
The cost to acquire and train a horse is substantial, which is another reason why partnerships are the way to participate. If you enter the racing game purchasing one horse and that horse performs poorly, it's likely to leave a bad taste in your mouth. The key is to diversify by investing in several horses. Sometimes the good ones will carry the bad ones. Also keep in mind that poorly performing racehorses will eventually be retired, reducing your loses and increasing your bottom-line. Unless there is a good reason for the poor performance of a racehorse, the partnership should retire the horse and move on. Experience has shown that poorly performing horses, after several attempts at different distances on different surfaces, are unlikely to improve significantly. Get rid of them. It's sometimes difficult to do when you have invested so much money into the horse, but most of the time you are just throwing away good money after bad.
Some primary things to consider in the selection of a partnership include reputation, cost and location.
Look to unbiased people who can give you constructive feedback on existing partnerships. Keep in mind, that all partnerships can offer you positive references. That's useless. Everyone has a few friends and family members who will vouch for them. That's why I used the word "unbiased". Hang out at the track and ask a few people who have knowledge. Keep in mind that they may have an agenda also, so be careful. Sometimes things like communications may make a difference. How does the managing partner communicate information to the partners and how often? Are they receptive to phone calls and e-mails? Do they answer them in a timely manner? (Probably everyone provides good follow-up/communications before you buy into a partnership, but what about after the sale?) Did they properly inform you of all the risks? Do they utilize a "hard sell" approach? Are they helpful at getting you licensed? Ultimately, you will have to judge for yourself in order to arrive at a decision.
Do your homework. Ask around and do research on the Internet - it can tell you much about a racing stable. Would you be happy buying one percent of a horse for $1,000 only to later discover that the partnership purchased the horse at a sale for $2,000 a month ago? Research what they paid for the horse. If the horse was ever sold at public auction, the information is available. View their website and read all the pages. Training costs can also vary substantially from track to track. The bigger, more popular urban tracks can be twice as expensive as the more rural tracks.
Where will your horse be stabled? That will impact both your cost and the opportunity to see it race live. If you live near Belmont Park in New York, you will probably enjoy your investment more if you can see it race live. Admission to the saddling paddock before the race, owner's box seats, socializing with your other partners and participating in the winner's circle photograph are all benefits that are enjoyable for most partner's. It's hard to do if you live in New York and your horse races at Santa Anita (California) or Gulfstream Park (Florida). Keep this in mind when choosing a horse racing partnership.
You may also want to look at the way the managing partner makes a profit off the syndicate. Is it through marked-up prices, management fees, or a combination of both? Some partnerships will syndicate horses at their cost and charge no management fee. Why? Because they will retain a large percentage of a horse and they are just looking just to minimize their risk. Syndicates such as these make their money by having successful racehorses. My syndicate, Dream Team Racing Stable, is just such a syndicate. There is nothing wrong with a syndicate making a profit, but partnerships where the managing partner's profit is driven by success on the track seem the best way to go. Partnerships who collect large monthly management fees are unlikely to retire poorly performing horses, as it is not in their best interest. They will race the horse forever and you will continue to pay and lose money for a long time to come, while the management continues to profit. Choose a syndicate where your best interest is in alignment with the syndicate's best interest. Partnerships with excessive mark-ups and/or management fees are not in your best interest.
Cheap is not always best. I see all kinds of syndicates that offer horses at really cheap prices and seldom do I ever see those horses succeed on the track. Knowing that it costs about $45,000-$55,000 per year to train a horse (not including acquisition costs) at Belmont, I'd be very leery of partnerships that are offering a horse for sale for less than cost. A horse being offered for sale for $29,900 with all expenses included through the end of the year, well, quite frankly it scares me. Are they trying to recoup some of their investment on an injured horse? If not, what are they doing to cut costs? What part of the horses care and feeding program is being reduced? No matter how they do it, it's not in the best interest of the horse or yourself.
Bigger is not always better. Bigger outfits spend substantial money on advertising and marketing. You see their advertisements on the horse racing television stations all the time and their marketing is brilliant. They have the nicest websites and the nicest brochures. Don't be fooled. You need to look underneath the make-up to see what's really there. And besides, who pays for all that shine and gloss? You do, in the prices you pay to participate.
Claiming partnerships are becoming more and more popular. They allow you entry into the game at a very low price with a horse that is currently racing. Keep in mind that when you claim a horse, you may be claiming someone else's problem and now their problem is your problem. I've seen horses claimed that were completely broken down and totally incapable of ever racing again. When you claim a horse, you do so at your own risk without the ability to vet or inspect the horse close-up. It is very, very risky. If a horse is running in a cheap claimer there is a reason why. Keep this in mind. I have never participated in a claiming partnership and have never offered one. I doubt I ever will.
If I can reiterate a few points, it would be to do your research and diversify. If your experience in a partnership is not a good one, don't give-up. Find another one. Be patient. Eventually, you'll find a horse racing partnership that suits your needs and desires.
If you have any questions regarding horse racing partnerships, please feel free to e-mail me at info@dreamteamracingstable.com or visit http://www.dreamteamracingstable.com to view our website. I wish you the very best of luck in your quest to find a racehorse partnership that meets your desires.
Selecting a Horse Racing Partnership
Food For Thought
By James Culver, Managing Partner
Dream Team Racing Stable, LLC
http://www.dreamteamracingstable.com
info@dreamteamracingstable.com
Horse riding is one of the most popular recreational activities in the English countries. Earlier on horseback or better, have it was a sign of class and wealth. Normally, the Upperclassmen are used to their horses, which were well-prepared with all necessary accessories to ride. Horse saddle is one of the most important accessories especially for the driver, as he, the necessary balance and support while riding the horse.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Selecting A Horse Racing Partnership
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Using Horse Racing Tips...
Using horse racing tips takes away all the fun?
There are some people who claim that using horse racing tips takes away the fun, the truth is that these people have never been to a good horse racing track just yet, or they have no idea of what exactly is going on inside the track nor used the right horse racing tips.
Once you get to understand every single method and process available to you in terms of horse racing, it is exciting to experience this sort of event and using the right horse racing tips. It is not even expensive if you really know how to properly place your bets, and the best thing about using horse racing tips, is when you actually make great profits out from this practice!
In the next few lines I will tell you the most basic elements of using other people horse racing tips right, so that you may get started and enjoy all the benefits that this practice has to offer. First of all let us begin with some basic horse racing tips:
Win horse. The win horse is, obviously, the horse who actually wins the race, the one that arrives in first place to the end of the track.
Place horse. The place horse may be considered as the second place horse, is the one that finishes the race just after the winning horse.
Show horse. The show horse is, as you have probably guessed by now, the horse that arrives in third place to the end of the track.
Now that you know the basic terminology you can start using horse racing tips, let us continue with the next lesson, which is related to the actual wagers you may place on each race.
Daily Double. If you have just found out that you have a gift for selecting the winning horses, then the Daily Double is just for you. This kind of wager is placed on 2 different races, and you will need to select the 2 horses which will win each race. Needless to say, the Daily Double is a high paying wager so you better use some professional horse racing tips.
Quinella. If you find yourself in a situation where you can not decide between 2 horses, then you should play a Quinella. With a Quinella you choose 2 different horses and you win if they arrive in first and second place, no matter which one of them comes in first.
Generally professionals never give this kind of horse racing tips.
Exacta. Just as the Quinella, only that this time around you will have to bet on the order as well, pick two horses and decide which one of them is coming in first, and which one is coming in second. This is one of the highest paying bets out there, definitely a must.
These were the most basic elements plus a little introduction about using horse racing tips, further lessons and even some great horse racing tips in the upcoming days.
John Anthony?s horse racing tips have helped over 1,288 people worldwide making a regular income with horse betting. His website http://www.Sure2Profit.com provides a wealth of informative articles and horse racing tips for PRO and beginners alike.
There are some people who claim that using horse racing tips takes away the fun, the truth is that these people have never been to a good horse racing track just yet, or they have no idea of what exactly is going on inside the track nor used the right horse racing tips.
Once you get to understand every single method and process available to you in terms of horse racing, it is exciting to experience this sort of event and using the right horse racing tips. It is not even expensive if you really know how to properly place your bets, and the best thing about using horse racing tips, is when you actually make great profits out from this practice!
In the next few lines I will tell you the most basic elements of using other people horse racing tips right, so that you may get started and enjoy all the benefits that this practice has to offer. First of all let us begin with some basic horse racing tips:
Win horse. The win horse is, obviously, the horse who actually wins the race, the one that arrives in first place to the end of the track.
Place horse. The place horse may be considered as the second place horse, is the one that finishes the race just after the winning horse.
Show horse. The show horse is, as you have probably guessed by now, the horse that arrives in third place to the end of the track.
Now that you know the basic terminology you can start using horse racing tips, let us continue with the next lesson, which is related to the actual wagers you may place on each race.
Daily Double. If you have just found out that you have a gift for selecting the winning horses, then the Daily Double is just for you. This kind of wager is placed on 2 different races, and you will need to select the 2 horses which will win each race. Needless to say, the Daily Double is a high paying wager so you better use some professional horse racing tips.
Quinella. If you find yourself in a situation where you can not decide between 2 horses, then you should play a Quinella. With a Quinella you choose 2 different horses and you win if they arrive in first and second place, no matter which one of them comes in first.
Generally professionals never give this kind of horse racing tips.
Exacta. Just as the Quinella, only that this time around you will have to bet on the order as well, pick two horses and decide which one of them is coming in first, and which one is coming in second. This is one of the highest paying bets out there, definitely a must.
These were the most basic elements plus a little introduction about using horse racing tips, further lessons and even some great horse racing tips in the upcoming days.
John Anthony?s horse racing tips have helped over 1,288 people worldwide making a regular income with horse betting. His website http://www.Sure2Profit.com provides a wealth of informative articles and horse racing tips for PRO and beginners alike.
The Role of Weather on Horse Racing Tips
When racing tipsters make their predictions, they have to consider factors like the horse's health, age, and performances on past races. Also, the tipster has to study weather conditions, race track conditions, and jockey-horse chemistry to make a relatively accurate guess or prediction on which horse will finish first. Most of these salient factors are too scientific and complicated for regular punters. But you can easily learn how to observe the weather and see how it affects how horses run in a certain race.
Watch Horses Run In The Rain
A soggy horse track is a good way to observe how horses perform when it rains during a race. You see, some horses seem to run better on wet tracks while others do not. Some horses prefer dry tracks instead of wet ones. That is why you have to know how a particular horse fared in rain-drenched tracks compared to dry race tracks. If the horse runs well in both wet and dry tracks, then you don't have to consider weather as a contributing factor to your horse racing tips. However, if there are inconsistencies and you can't see a positive trend, this means that weather greatly affects how the horses run in the race.
Correlate Weather With How The Horse Finishes In A Race
So that you can test if the horse racing tips that you get are any good, you can associate the past performances of a particular horse and the weather conditions of its previous races. If you find out that the horse tends to finish in the top 2 when it rains, you should put your money on that horse only if the weather bureau forecasts rain in that particular race. Tipsters think that way when they factor in weather conditions into their horse racing tips. When the day is sunny and the track is dry and hot, they would never put your money on a horse which tends to perform well when it rains.
Do Not Push Your Luck
You also have to remember that in very harsh weather conditions, some horses may win out of pure luck. The win may be a fluke. Unless you really know that the horse you are betting on thrives in bad weather conditions, the best thing do is to think that all horses have fairly equal odds to finish first. An underdog can basically outrun the favorite in any given race. Yet, your horse racing tips will tell you that a certain horse's odds are lower than most, and that is where you should put your money on.
Professional tipsters, be it on the race tracks or online, rely so heavily on steady figures and stats to come up with very accurate predictions. That is why consistency is very important if you want to study the role of weather in predicting the outcome of horse races. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to study the relationship between weather patterns and the horses' performance during earlier races to get horse racing tips.
Interested in other factors affecting horse racing tips, horse racing results [http://www.horse-racing-software.org/Performance.shtml], and horse racing systems [http://horse-racing-software.org/System.html]? Go to Horse-Racing-Software.org right now!
Watch Horses Run In The Rain
A soggy horse track is a good way to observe how horses perform when it rains during a race. You see, some horses seem to run better on wet tracks while others do not. Some horses prefer dry tracks instead of wet ones. That is why you have to know how a particular horse fared in rain-drenched tracks compared to dry race tracks. If the horse runs well in both wet and dry tracks, then you don't have to consider weather as a contributing factor to your horse racing tips. However, if there are inconsistencies and you can't see a positive trend, this means that weather greatly affects how the horses run in the race.
Correlate Weather With How The Horse Finishes In A Race
So that you can test if the horse racing tips that you get are any good, you can associate the past performances of a particular horse and the weather conditions of its previous races. If you find out that the horse tends to finish in the top 2 when it rains, you should put your money on that horse only if the weather bureau forecasts rain in that particular race. Tipsters think that way when they factor in weather conditions into their horse racing tips. When the day is sunny and the track is dry and hot, they would never put your money on a horse which tends to perform well when it rains.
Do Not Push Your Luck
You also have to remember that in very harsh weather conditions, some horses may win out of pure luck. The win may be a fluke. Unless you really know that the horse you are betting on thrives in bad weather conditions, the best thing do is to think that all horses have fairly equal odds to finish first. An underdog can basically outrun the favorite in any given race. Yet, your horse racing tips will tell you that a certain horse's odds are lower than most, and that is where you should put your money on.
Professional tipsters, be it on the race tracks or online, rely so heavily on steady figures and stats to come up with very accurate predictions. That is why consistency is very important if you want to study the role of weather in predicting the outcome of horse races. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to study the relationship between weather patterns and the horses' performance during earlier races to get horse racing tips.
Interested in other factors affecting horse racing tips, horse racing results [http://www.horse-racing-software.org/Performance.shtml], and horse racing systems [http://horse-racing-software.org/System.html]? Go to Horse-Racing-Software.org right now!
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Why Use a Horse Racing Betting System?
Considering using somebody's horse racing betting system?
Horse racing betting systems are like lifelines to horse racing enthusiasts. These systems are created to guide those who are putting in money at the races. Each horse betting system is designed for a different type of race and different category of horses. This is because all races are not big derby races, some are small and the participating horses can be amateurs or relatively new at the races.
This difference has prompted horse racing betting system experts to formulate different horse betting system for each type of race. Horses racing betting systems are like a guide to show you a number of methods that you could help you to deduce the winner. Horse racing system will help you so that you do not lose your money at the races instead you win and take some bonus home each time.
Using a horse racing betting system is a good start, as it educates a newcomer about how to go about the races and how he can earn quite some amount of money. There are numbers of horse racing betting systems, therefore each one can choose and pick the one he wants or believes in rather than each person using the same one.
(Usually) Horse racing betting systems do not materialize out of thin air, it is quite reverse actually, these are based on proper statistics that are presented by the previous races. Previous races help in determining health and form of each horse, this makes it possible to deduce and identify the probable winner at each race.
Horse racing betting systems also change basis of their statistics, each system maker relies on some statistical information given by sporting dailies, the dailies are unlikely to make statistical mistakes since they maintain perfect data.
Horse racing betting is to be done only by those who have money they can spare towards horse racing, it is against unwritten horse racing rules to put in money from domestic funds, this will not spare any time and lead the family to ruins.
To avoid this from happening, horse-racing enthusiasts can create banks and put in all horse racing funds in the banks and decide how much money they would put on the races each month. This way they will avoid using domestic funds and instead enjoy the thrill of horse racing.
Horse racing betting systems are speculative business, therefore you cannot be sure that the system you use to deduce the winner is perfect there can be uncertainties in this game, so being prepared for such uncertainties is necessary.
John Anthony's Horse Racing Betting System is used by over 2,344 punters worldwide as their only source of income. John is the director of the horse racing tips website http://www.sure2profit.com , the number one resource for like-minded people who want to make a wealthy living betting on horse racing.
Horse racing betting systems are like lifelines to horse racing enthusiasts. These systems are created to guide those who are putting in money at the races. Each horse betting system is designed for a different type of race and different category of horses. This is because all races are not big derby races, some are small and the participating horses can be amateurs or relatively new at the races.
This difference has prompted horse racing betting system experts to formulate different horse betting system for each type of race. Horses racing betting systems are like a guide to show you a number of methods that you could help you to deduce the winner. Horse racing system will help you so that you do not lose your money at the races instead you win and take some bonus home each time.
Using a horse racing betting system is a good start, as it educates a newcomer about how to go about the races and how he can earn quite some amount of money. There are numbers of horse racing betting systems, therefore each one can choose and pick the one he wants or believes in rather than each person using the same one.
(Usually) Horse racing betting systems do not materialize out of thin air, it is quite reverse actually, these are based on proper statistics that are presented by the previous races. Previous races help in determining health and form of each horse, this makes it possible to deduce and identify the probable winner at each race.
Horse racing betting systems also change basis of their statistics, each system maker relies on some statistical information given by sporting dailies, the dailies are unlikely to make statistical mistakes since they maintain perfect data.
Horse racing betting is to be done only by those who have money they can spare towards horse racing, it is against unwritten horse racing rules to put in money from domestic funds, this will not spare any time and lead the family to ruins.
To avoid this from happening, horse-racing enthusiasts can create banks and put in all horse racing funds in the banks and decide how much money they would put on the races each month. This way they will avoid using domestic funds and instead enjoy the thrill of horse racing.
Horse racing betting systems are speculative business, therefore you cannot be sure that the system you use to deduce the winner is perfect there can be uncertainties in this game, so being prepared for such uncertainties is necessary.
John Anthony's Horse Racing Betting System is used by over 2,344 punters worldwide as their only source of income. John is the director of the horse racing tips website http://www.sure2profit.com , the number one resource for like-minded people who want to make a wealthy living betting on horse racing.
You Must Be a Contrarian to Win at Horse Racing!
Betting is a hell of a lot more fun when you win. The public generally views anyone that bets on horse racing as a gambler, translation a "loser." With my early Computer Group success, I have never considered myself either a gambler or a loser.
You must approach racing with the mindset of a stock market analyst. If you look at it any other way, your just another compulsive gambler. (Sorry if anybody is offended, but we need to keep it real) Racing is a new financial market that is slowly catching up to the rest of the world.
With the invention of peer-to-peer exchange wagering, racing can be attacked, conquered, and soundly beaten. Advanced algorithms we use in our computer programs still have a decided advantage over the public. We are not talking about the software you buy for £49.95 on the internet, but proprietary databases run by main frame computers.
THINK OUT OF THE BOX, BE A CONTRARIAN
To beat the bookmakers and flog the public, you need to "think out of the box" and do the opposite of what their doing. This is only accomplished by contrarian thinking. Instead of betting horses to win, like the rest of the cattle, become a bookmaker and take a stand against public opinion by laying horses to win. If you are a newbie to all this, let me quickly explain that in any event, you can either Back a horse which means your betting to win. Conversely, I take a contrarian position against you, which means I am Laying your horse to lose.
When backing, you bet 10 to win 50. I choose to be on the other side by putting up £50 in order to win 10. Sound crazy. I am asking you to risk a lot to only win a little. Do not leave just yet we are only getting started. Think about it, all your loser friends are betting horses to win year in and year out. Are they retired and living on a golf course, offshore in Paradise, like I am? Or would they rather borrow money from YOU each week until payday.
Casinos and Bookmakers in Las Vegas welcome all comers to bet anything they wish on race horses. Look on the internet, hundreds of casinos will give you a bonus, if you promise to lose money with them. Maybe these casinos and bookmakers are on to something. Bookmakers are successful because they understand the mathematical odds of racing and sports wagering. We started in 1979, and have spent years to learn the accurate mathematics on what constitutes a loser. Most people cannot figure out a system that is foolproof and mathematically correct. Math geniuses are few and far between.
Let us examine this proposition a little bit closer. You are in the position of being David verses Goliath when backing a horse to win. To win, absolutely everything needs to go your way. You need to trust the trainer. Has he been properly placed his horse in a race with his friends. (His friends of course are other horses that he can beat) Next, the Jockey must give you a perfect ride. Do not move to soon, do not get shut off, do not go too fast, is he an apprentice. Ouch, and do not go too slow, or move to late, and most important. Do not fall off.
The horse also needs to cooperate for you to collect. He must feel like running today. Those new blinkers or tongue ties need to work. What about that deep muddy track or the artificial surface, has he run well on it before? He cannot become spooked by a new track surface that is new to him. There are a million more little tidbits that can separate you from your cash.
Allow me to take a look at the Lay side of this same event. I have decided to error on the side of the casinos and bookmakers. I will bet that your horse will not win, I will be laying him to lose. Last time I looked, they were constructing some pretty nice casinos with this kind of thinking. And the good news is, you will need everything to go right. I only need one thing for you to go wrong. I also have another huge bonus. I have every other horse in the race running for me. So in a race of 15 runners, I am cheering for any of 14 of them to win. If you have spent years backing horses and going home a loser, maybe it is time to switch teams and start laying horses.
I WANT TO RETIRE YOU ASK CAN RACING MAKE ME RICH?
The internet is full of innumerable computer programs, systems, books and manuals that supposedly give you a chance to retire. Most of them will take your money and give you little more than empty promises in return. These programs are not terrible, there are just not sophisticated enough to give you the edge needed to win To be competitive, you must combine state of the art technology with mathematics and meticulous record keeping.
Can this be accomplished by hand or on your home computer you ask? Certainly, but you will need Santa's little helpers working for you to input all the data. Also, make sure you are using computers with artificial intelligence. In other words, the computer learns each day from the results and makes corrections to the program when needed. No software program is guaranteed to work in the future. Racing is in a constant state of flux and change. It is imperative that you stay ahead of rule adjustments, track bias, weather, etc. or you will be eaten up by change.
HOW THE SELECTION PROCESS WORKS
Remember with lay betting, you need to adopt a reverse strategy for evaluating horses and racing conditions. You must analyze how a horse will perform under existing track conditions. You need to take a look at race shape. Is there much speed in the race today? What part of the track should your jockey place the horse?
Many people think they have a system, only to discover that it does not work all the time. To be validated as successful, your program or system must work at all tracks, covering all types of racing, anytime of the year.
If your systems under performs, you must resist chasing your losses. This only leads to stupid decisions, and that of course is never good. Remember, scared money "NEVER WINS." LIVE BY NUMBERS AND FORGOT HUMAN EMOTION.
We are good at what we do, because all methodology is 100% Mechanical and subject to human emotions. Over 100,000 races went into the Matrix Profile to find out what makes a loser. This is the most important line in this article. You MUST take Emotion out of the handicapping equation, unless of course you are a HAL 9000 computer. You will only WIN by strictly trusting and following the numbers.
WHAT DO YOU WANT TO ACCOMPLISH?
Before designing a system or methodology you need to outline your goals. Mine were very simple, but reaching the objective took a couple of years.
1. Design a method that would work everywhere. (All tracks, weather conditions, class, artificial surface, turf, types of race, maiden, stakes, claiming, etc.)
2.Design a method that could function with Betting Robots. The only thing the Bot would need to sort, are the odds. (Bet Only horses at 9.9 or less Betfair) Some people are not financially able to stay home and sit by their computer.
3.Maintain consistent results through out the year, without long losing streaks.
HOW TO BUILD A LAY SYSTEM
After our database of over 100,000 races was in place, we had to decide what was important. To be successful at laying horses, we needed to profile a loser. What were the key traits that are shared with the majority of losing horses? Each event is independent of all others. First we must compare all entries while assigning and deducting points for past results. Not only do we need a profile of a loser, we also need to profile who stands the best chance of winning.
In simply terms, I want to assign each horse a percentage chance of winning the race
Example Race:
Horse A = 75.00% Odds of Winning - 25.00% Odds of Losing
Horse B = 66.66% Odds of Winning - 33.33% Odds of Losing
Horse C = 58.33% Odds of Winning - 41.67% Odds of Losing
Horse D = 55.60% Odds of Winning - 44.40% Odds of Losing
Horse E = 38.90% Odds of Winning - 61.11% Odds of Losing
Horse F = 30.60% Odds of Winning - 69.40% Odds of Losing
Horse G = 27.80% Odds of Winning - 72.22% Odds of Losing
Horse H = 11.11% Odds of Winning - 88.88% Odds of Losing
Horse I = 8.33 % Odds of Winning - 91.67% Odds of Losing
Look at the raw data above, which of the horses stands the smallest chance of winning the race. Which horses do you want to lay? Is your Answer to lay both Horse "H" and Horse "I"? If so, you can go sit in the corner and put on the dunce cap. This is only a part of the equation. You must know what the Betfair closing odds will be to make that decision.
Horse Selection "I", will only win 8% of the time. So that means if you Lay Selections "I" you will collect 92% of the time. It still sounds pretty good, a system where you will win 92% of the time. But what are the Betfair Odds? If that horse goes to post at 150.0 to 1, you will be in big trouble. First you will never be laying horses at 150 to 1 unless you have an interest in the Royal Family treasury. To win 100, you will need to make sure you have 15,000 in your trading account to cover the days when he does win.
Carrying on with the example, if you only lost once every hundred races, instead of the projected eight times (8%), you would still be negative 5,800.
You must look for an acceptable win percentage, and decide on the largest amount you want to risk. Remember, the public is always the indicator of who will win, so the lower the odds, the more chance a horse has of winning. That is why many people will never lay a horse below 3 or 4 to one.
I am comfortable laying horses at 9.9 Betfair or less. That means, my selections can be laid, at 9 to 1 or less. (If you are not familiar with Betfair odds, they add an additional 1.0 to each odds quoted, which represents the amount of your wager)
My raw strike rate is about 83%, plus or minus 2% percent. Here is an easy example. If we lay 100 races, we will win 8,300 with my consistent 83% strike rate. Looking at the last 20,000 selections, my average losing lay price on Betfair was 5.31. I expect to lose 17% of the time. Calculating my losses on 100 races, I can expect to lose 7,327. (That's 4.31 Odds X 17 Losers = 7,327). So the profit over 100 selections is 973 or 9.73% percent.
The secret is to turn you bankroll over as many times as possible each month. Using my raw selections, I average 650 to 700 raw data plays per month. Which means you can turn your bank over six to seven times every thirty days and turn that 973 into a lot more. Those numbers are not bad considering the Bank of England is only offering 1.7% a year, when you deduct for 3% inflation.
THE SECRET TO DOUBLING YOUR PROFITS
The next secret is to double stake low odd selections. As I have stated before, because the market is made up of a pool of opinions, the lower the odds, the greater chance a horse has of winning. Our selections going off at 3 to 1 or less, (4.0 Betfair) we still show a strike rate of 77%. Not as good as our normal 84%, but you are risking a significantly smaller portion of your bankroll on each bet. Double staking short priced selections increases your bottom line. If you lose 100 on a selection that is 6.0, your loss will be 500. When you lose 200 on a selection that is 3.5 your loss is also 500. But we have big bonus here. When you win at 3.5 Betfair, and you will win 77% of the time, you collect twice your normal stake or 200.
This is not an overnight "get rich scheme." It is a solid, stair step progression, where your bankroll grows at a very steady pace. Make every wager unit the same amount, with the exception of the double stake unit with post time odds of 4.0 Betfair or less. Start small, and be comfortable with your staking unit.
You should have 40 to 80 units in your bankroll before starting. If you want to win 10 per race, you will need to set aside 400 to 800. If you start at the 100 level, conversely you will need 4,000 to 8,000. Do not increase your units, until you have won at least half the amount of your starting bankroll. When a raise in stakes is appropriate you should only increase your wagers by 10% to 20%. Move slowly and do not become a hog. Remember, "Pigs get Fat, but Hogs get slaughtered".
You may be able to improve on my Raw Ratings and increase the strike rate with a system of your own. By either increasing the strike rate thus eliminating losers, you will fatten your bottom line.
TIME TO APPLY SOME FILTERS
I literally have thousands of little filters in my database, that I can apply to hopeful improve my Raw Numbers. A filter example is: "Eliminate any runner who has won more than 90% of his races." Or, "Eliminate all runners who finished second in their last race". There are literally thousands of Filters you can dream up to improve the Raw Ratings.
Some are completely useless, while others can seriously improve your results. Before applying filters, you need to have enough data, to prove your conclusion. I have found by applying 5 filters, I can increase my strike rate about 3% to 4%. This may not sound like much, but it makes a huge difference. At the end of an average month, I will win almost exactly the same amount in dollars or pounds, as with the Raw Numbers. But I will only have about one-third as many selections; however my Return on Investment will triple,
Average Monthly return with a 100 Stake using Raw Numbers
Strike Rate 83.9% - Selections 524 - Average Profit 7,633 -13.7% Return
Average Monthly return with a £100 Stake using Filtered Raw Numbers
Strike Rate 87.9% - Selections 160 - Average Profit 6,400 - 38.2% Return
As you can see, by improving your strike rate a few points, and eliminating unnecessary selections, you could in fact triple your minimum stake. Again, you must be very careful whenever you filter broad base winning raw numbers. Having a strike rate of 83.9% over 1,000 races is much more impressive than a strike rate of 87.9% over 100 races.
I have fallen into the over filtering trap myself. At one time, I was applying over 30 different filters. Short term success was fantastic, but the numbers will catch up with you if your not careful. Take your time, do your research, and trust the numbers.
I hope your are intrigued about the power of professional computer handicapping. We have developed proprietary main frame programs, that use artificial intelligence to learn every day. Continue to learn, and take advantage of our FREE Research articles. I also offer a FREE [http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com] daily selection for U.K. and Irish horse racing each day.
Steve was part of the Computer Group, who had a betting pool of over $40 million dollars and beat Las Vegas in the 1980's. Later, some of the programmers attack horse racing in Hong Kong where the stakes and profits were even greater. He is now retired, and offers he resources to others who share the dream of "Winning at the Races" [http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com]
You must approach racing with the mindset of a stock market analyst. If you look at it any other way, your just another compulsive gambler. (Sorry if anybody is offended, but we need to keep it real) Racing is a new financial market that is slowly catching up to the rest of the world.
With the invention of peer-to-peer exchange wagering, racing can be attacked, conquered, and soundly beaten. Advanced algorithms we use in our computer programs still have a decided advantage over the public. We are not talking about the software you buy for £49.95 on the internet, but proprietary databases run by main frame computers.
THINK OUT OF THE BOX, BE A CONTRARIAN
To beat the bookmakers and flog the public, you need to "think out of the box" and do the opposite of what their doing. This is only accomplished by contrarian thinking. Instead of betting horses to win, like the rest of the cattle, become a bookmaker and take a stand against public opinion by laying horses to win. If you are a newbie to all this, let me quickly explain that in any event, you can either Back a horse which means your betting to win. Conversely, I take a contrarian position against you, which means I am Laying your horse to lose.
When backing, you bet 10 to win 50. I choose to be on the other side by putting up £50 in order to win 10. Sound crazy. I am asking you to risk a lot to only win a little. Do not leave just yet we are only getting started. Think about it, all your loser friends are betting horses to win year in and year out. Are they retired and living on a golf course, offshore in Paradise, like I am? Or would they rather borrow money from YOU each week until payday.
Casinos and Bookmakers in Las Vegas welcome all comers to bet anything they wish on race horses. Look on the internet, hundreds of casinos will give you a bonus, if you promise to lose money with them. Maybe these casinos and bookmakers are on to something. Bookmakers are successful because they understand the mathematical odds of racing and sports wagering. We started in 1979, and have spent years to learn the accurate mathematics on what constitutes a loser. Most people cannot figure out a system that is foolproof and mathematically correct. Math geniuses are few and far between.
Let us examine this proposition a little bit closer. You are in the position of being David verses Goliath when backing a horse to win. To win, absolutely everything needs to go your way. You need to trust the trainer. Has he been properly placed his horse in a race with his friends. (His friends of course are other horses that he can beat) Next, the Jockey must give you a perfect ride. Do not move to soon, do not get shut off, do not go too fast, is he an apprentice. Ouch, and do not go too slow, or move to late, and most important. Do not fall off.
The horse also needs to cooperate for you to collect. He must feel like running today. Those new blinkers or tongue ties need to work. What about that deep muddy track or the artificial surface, has he run well on it before? He cannot become spooked by a new track surface that is new to him. There are a million more little tidbits that can separate you from your cash.
Allow me to take a look at the Lay side of this same event. I have decided to error on the side of the casinos and bookmakers. I will bet that your horse will not win, I will be laying him to lose. Last time I looked, they were constructing some pretty nice casinos with this kind of thinking. And the good news is, you will need everything to go right. I only need one thing for you to go wrong. I also have another huge bonus. I have every other horse in the race running for me. So in a race of 15 runners, I am cheering for any of 14 of them to win. If you have spent years backing horses and going home a loser, maybe it is time to switch teams and start laying horses.
I WANT TO RETIRE YOU ASK CAN RACING MAKE ME RICH?
The internet is full of innumerable computer programs, systems, books and manuals that supposedly give you a chance to retire. Most of them will take your money and give you little more than empty promises in return. These programs are not terrible, there are just not sophisticated enough to give you the edge needed to win To be competitive, you must combine state of the art technology with mathematics and meticulous record keeping.
Can this be accomplished by hand or on your home computer you ask? Certainly, but you will need Santa's little helpers working for you to input all the data. Also, make sure you are using computers with artificial intelligence. In other words, the computer learns each day from the results and makes corrections to the program when needed. No software program is guaranteed to work in the future. Racing is in a constant state of flux and change. It is imperative that you stay ahead of rule adjustments, track bias, weather, etc. or you will be eaten up by change.
HOW THE SELECTION PROCESS WORKS
Remember with lay betting, you need to adopt a reverse strategy for evaluating horses and racing conditions. You must analyze how a horse will perform under existing track conditions. You need to take a look at race shape. Is there much speed in the race today? What part of the track should your jockey place the horse?
Many people think they have a system, only to discover that it does not work all the time. To be validated as successful, your program or system must work at all tracks, covering all types of racing, anytime of the year.
If your systems under performs, you must resist chasing your losses. This only leads to stupid decisions, and that of course is never good. Remember, scared money "NEVER WINS." LIVE BY NUMBERS AND FORGOT HUMAN EMOTION.
We are good at what we do, because all methodology is 100% Mechanical and subject to human emotions. Over 100,000 races went into the Matrix Profile to find out what makes a loser. This is the most important line in this article. You MUST take Emotion out of the handicapping equation, unless of course you are a HAL 9000 computer. You will only WIN by strictly trusting and following the numbers.
WHAT DO YOU WANT TO ACCOMPLISH?
Before designing a system or methodology you need to outline your goals. Mine were very simple, but reaching the objective took a couple of years.
1. Design a method that would work everywhere. (All tracks, weather conditions, class, artificial surface, turf, types of race, maiden, stakes, claiming, etc.)
2.Design a method that could function with Betting Robots. The only thing the Bot would need to sort, are the odds. (Bet Only horses at 9.9 or less Betfair) Some people are not financially able to stay home and sit by their computer.
3.Maintain consistent results through out the year, without long losing streaks.
HOW TO BUILD A LAY SYSTEM
After our database of over 100,000 races was in place, we had to decide what was important. To be successful at laying horses, we needed to profile a loser. What were the key traits that are shared with the majority of losing horses? Each event is independent of all others. First we must compare all entries while assigning and deducting points for past results. Not only do we need a profile of a loser, we also need to profile who stands the best chance of winning.
In simply terms, I want to assign each horse a percentage chance of winning the race
Example Race:
Horse A = 75.00% Odds of Winning - 25.00% Odds of Losing
Horse B = 66.66% Odds of Winning - 33.33% Odds of Losing
Horse C = 58.33% Odds of Winning - 41.67% Odds of Losing
Horse D = 55.60% Odds of Winning - 44.40% Odds of Losing
Horse E = 38.90% Odds of Winning - 61.11% Odds of Losing
Horse F = 30.60% Odds of Winning - 69.40% Odds of Losing
Horse G = 27.80% Odds of Winning - 72.22% Odds of Losing
Horse H = 11.11% Odds of Winning - 88.88% Odds of Losing
Horse I = 8.33 % Odds of Winning - 91.67% Odds of Losing
Look at the raw data above, which of the horses stands the smallest chance of winning the race. Which horses do you want to lay? Is your Answer to lay both Horse "H" and Horse "I"? If so, you can go sit in the corner and put on the dunce cap. This is only a part of the equation. You must know what the Betfair closing odds will be to make that decision.
Horse Selection "I", will only win 8% of the time. So that means if you Lay Selections "I" you will collect 92% of the time. It still sounds pretty good, a system where you will win 92% of the time. But what are the Betfair Odds? If that horse goes to post at 150.0 to 1, you will be in big trouble. First you will never be laying horses at 150 to 1 unless you have an interest in the Royal Family treasury. To win 100, you will need to make sure you have 15,000 in your trading account to cover the days when he does win.
Carrying on with the example, if you only lost once every hundred races, instead of the projected eight times (8%), you would still be negative 5,800.
You must look for an acceptable win percentage, and decide on the largest amount you want to risk. Remember, the public is always the indicator of who will win, so the lower the odds, the more chance a horse has of winning. That is why many people will never lay a horse below 3 or 4 to one.
I am comfortable laying horses at 9.9 Betfair or less. That means, my selections can be laid, at 9 to 1 or less. (If you are not familiar with Betfair odds, they add an additional 1.0 to each odds quoted, which represents the amount of your wager)
My raw strike rate is about 83%, plus or minus 2% percent. Here is an easy example. If we lay 100 races, we will win 8,300 with my consistent 83% strike rate. Looking at the last 20,000 selections, my average losing lay price on Betfair was 5.31. I expect to lose 17% of the time. Calculating my losses on 100 races, I can expect to lose 7,327. (That's 4.31 Odds X 17 Losers = 7,327). So the profit over 100 selections is 973 or 9.73% percent.
The secret is to turn you bankroll over as many times as possible each month. Using my raw selections, I average 650 to 700 raw data plays per month. Which means you can turn your bank over six to seven times every thirty days and turn that 973 into a lot more. Those numbers are not bad considering the Bank of England is only offering 1.7% a year, when you deduct for 3% inflation.
THE SECRET TO DOUBLING YOUR PROFITS
The next secret is to double stake low odd selections. As I have stated before, because the market is made up of a pool of opinions, the lower the odds, the greater chance a horse has of winning. Our selections going off at 3 to 1 or less, (4.0 Betfair) we still show a strike rate of 77%. Not as good as our normal 84%, but you are risking a significantly smaller portion of your bankroll on each bet. Double staking short priced selections increases your bottom line. If you lose 100 on a selection that is 6.0, your loss will be 500. When you lose 200 on a selection that is 3.5 your loss is also 500. But we have big bonus here. When you win at 3.5 Betfair, and you will win 77% of the time, you collect twice your normal stake or 200.
This is not an overnight "get rich scheme." It is a solid, stair step progression, where your bankroll grows at a very steady pace. Make every wager unit the same amount, with the exception of the double stake unit with post time odds of 4.0 Betfair or less. Start small, and be comfortable with your staking unit.
You should have 40 to 80 units in your bankroll before starting. If you want to win 10 per race, you will need to set aside 400 to 800. If you start at the 100 level, conversely you will need 4,000 to 8,000. Do not increase your units, until you have won at least half the amount of your starting bankroll. When a raise in stakes is appropriate you should only increase your wagers by 10% to 20%. Move slowly and do not become a hog. Remember, "Pigs get Fat, but Hogs get slaughtered".
You may be able to improve on my Raw Ratings and increase the strike rate with a system of your own. By either increasing the strike rate thus eliminating losers, you will fatten your bottom line.
TIME TO APPLY SOME FILTERS
I literally have thousands of little filters in my database, that I can apply to hopeful improve my Raw Numbers. A filter example is: "Eliminate any runner who has won more than 90% of his races." Or, "Eliminate all runners who finished second in their last race". There are literally thousands of Filters you can dream up to improve the Raw Ratings.
Some are completely useless, while others can seriously improve your results. Before applying filters, you need to have enough data, to prove your conclusion. I have found by applying 5 filters, I can increase my strike rate about 3% to 4%. This may not sound like much, but it makes a huge difference. At the end of an average month, I will win almost exactly the same amount in dollars or pounds, as with the Raw Numbers. But I will only have about one-third as many selections; however my Return on Investment will triple,
Average Monthly return with a 100 Stake using Raw Numbers
Strike Rate 83.9% - Selections 524 - Average Profit 7,633 -13.7% Return
Average Monthly return with a £100 Stake using Filtered Raw Numbers
Strike Rate 87.9% - Selections 160 - Average Profit 6,400 - 38.2% Return
As you can see, by improving your strike rate a few points, and eliminating unnecessary selections, you could in fact triple your minimum stake. Again, you must be very careful whenever you filter broad base winning raw numbers. Having a strike rate of 83.9% over 1,000 races is much more impressive than a strike rate of 87.9% over 100 races.
I have fallen into the over filtering trap myself. At one time, I was applying over 30 different filters. Short term success was fantastic, but the numbers will catch up with you if your not careful. Take your time, do your research, and trust the numbers.
I hope your are intrigued about the power of professional computer handicapping. We have developed proprietary main frame programs, that use artificial intelligence to learn every day. Continue to learn, and take advantage of our FREE Research articles. I also offer a FREE [http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com] daily selection for U.K. and Irish horse racing each day.
Steve was part of the Computer Group, who had a betting pool of over $40 million dollars and beat Las Vegas in the 1980's. Later, some of the programmers attack horse racing in Hong Kong where the stakes and profits were even greater. He is now retired, and offers he resources to others who share the dream of "Winning at the Races" [http://www.horse-racing-computer-group.com]
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Trio take honours in Newbury's title jumping class
Competition was fierce at the final of the British Showjumping Business Partnership International Stairway competition, hosted for the third year at The Royal County of Berkshire Show last week.
View the original article here
View the original article here
Train-catching Rosie gives birth to colt
Welsh mountain pony Rosie, who made international headlines when her former owner tried to board a train with her in Wales, has given birth to a colt.
View the original article here
View the original article here
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